Tuesday, April 30, 2013

Everything You Know About What the Fed Is Doing May Be Wrong

The economy and financial markets are really complicated. But there's always an easy fix for complicated things: Simplify!

Right now, the simplified logic on what the Federal Reserve is doing to the economy goes like this: By buying up hundreds of billions of dollars of Treasury bonds, the Fed is pushing interest rates down. And by scooping up those Treasury bonds, the Fed is financing the federal government's massive budget deficits.

Both are true, but only kind of. Simplifying doesn't tell us the whole story.  

Take interest rates.

The Fed has played around with quantitative easing for the last four and half years. But during that time it's gone in fits and starts, engaging in QE, then stopping, then starting up again. There have been several periods since 2008 when the Fed has purchased huge amounts of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, and several periods when it purchased no bonds all, leaving the market to itself.

Now, it would make sense that when the Treasury was buying government bonds, interest rates should have dropped -- that's the process of keeping interest rates artificially low. And it therefore makes sense that interest rates should have risen when the Fed ended its QE policies, as the free market found the right price.

But neither occurred.

It's actually been the other way around.

Every time the Fed has begun a new QE program, interest rates have gone up. And every time that program has ended, interest rates have gone down. Every. Single. Time:

Source: Federal Reserve, Calculated Risk.

How is this possible?

One explanation is that the Fed entering the Treasury market displaces more capital than it brings in. So, if the Fed steps in with $100 billion of Treasury purchases, but by doing so chases away $120 billion of private capital that would otherwise be buying Treasuries, the net impact on marginal buyers can be down. Also, the Fed announces the start and stop dates of its QE programs well before they occur, so the private market can price in events before they actually happen. As the saying goes, buy the rumor, sell the news.

Next, we hear a lot about how the Fed's Treasury purchases are helping the government finance its deficit. As economist Lawrence Lindsey said last year, "they are buying the entire deficit."

But again, it's not that simple. While the Fed is buying a lot of Treasury bonds, it sold a massive amount in late 2008 to make room on its balance sheet to bail out Wall Street. All the while, private investors around the world have been buying Treasuries like there's no tomorrow.

The result is that the Fed's ownership share of Treasury bonds outstanding is actually lower today that it was a decade ago:

Source: Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association, author's calculations.

"The truth is rarely pure and never simple," said Oscar Wilde. That's especially true with Fed policy. 

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Sunday, April 28, 2013

Telenav Beats on Both Top and Bottom Lines

Telenav (Nasdaq: TNAV  ) reported earnings on April 25. Here are the numbers you need to know.

The 10-second takeaway
For the quarter ended March 31 (Q3), Telenav beat expectations on revenues and beat expectations on earnings per share.

Compared to the prior-year quarter, revenue dropped. GAAP earnings per share dropped significantly.

Margins dropped across the board.

Revenue details
Telenav logged revenue of $55.0 million. The four analysts polled by S&P Capital IQ expected net sales of $52.7 million on the same basis. GAAP reported sales were the same as the prior-year quarter's.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Dollar amounts in millions. Non-GAAP figures may vary to maintain comparability with estimates.

EPS details
EPS came in at $0.09. The two earnings estimates compiled by S&P Capital IQ anticipated $0.02 per share. GAAP EPS of $0.09 for Q3 were 47% lower than the prior-year quarter's $0.17 per share.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Non-GAAP figures may vary to maintain comparability with estimates.

Margin details
For the quarter, gross margin was 60.6%, much worse than the prior-year quarter. Operating margin was 7.4%, much worse than the prior-year quarter. Net margin was 7.0%, 570 basis points worse than the prior-year quarter. (Margins calculated in GAAP terms.)

Looking ahead
Next quarter's average estimate for revenue is $43.9 million. On the bottom line, the average EPS estimate is $0.05.

Next year's average estimate for revenue is $192.4 million. The average EPS estimate is $0.14.

Investor sentiment
The stock has a four-star rating (out of five) at Motley Fool CAPS, with 110 members out of 115 rating the stock outperform, and five members rating it underperform. Among 21 CAPS All-Star picks (recommendations by the highest-ranked CAPS members), 20 give Telenav a green thumbs-up, and one give it a red thumbs-down.

Of Wall Street recommendations tracked by S&P Capital IQ, the average opinion on Telenav is outperform, with an average price target of $7.45.

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Saturday, April 27, 2013

Cree Beats on Revenue, Matches Expectations on EPS

Cree (Nasdaq: CREE  ) reported earnings on April 23. Here are the numbers you need to know.

The 10-second takeaway
For the quarter ended March 31 (Q3), Cree beat slightly on revenues and met expectations on earnings per share.

Compared to the prior-year quarter, revenue grew significantly. Non-GAAP earnings per share expanded significantly. GAAP earnings per share increased significantly.

Margins increased across the board.

Revenue details
Cree logged revenue of $348.9 million. The 25 analysts polled by S&P Capital IQ anticipated revenue of $343.6 million on the same basis. GAAP reported sales were 23% higher than the prior-year quarter's $284.8 million.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Dollar amounts in millions. Non-GAAP figures may vary to maintain comparability with estimates.

EPS details
EPS came in at $0.34. The 25 earnings estimates compiled by S&P Capital IQ averaged $0.34 per share. Non-GAAP EPS of $0.34 for Q3 were 70% higher than the prior-year quarter's $0.20 per share. GAAP EPS of $0.19 for Q3 were 138% higher than the prior-year quarter's $0.08 per share.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Non-GAAP figures may vary to maintain comparability with estimates.

Margin details
For the quarter, gross margin was 38.1%, 320 basis points better than the prior-year quarter. Operating margin was 6.9%, 490 basis points better than the prior-year quarter. Net margin was 6.3%, 300 basis points better than the prior-year quarter. (Margins calculated in GAAP terms.)

Looking ahead
Next quarter's average estimate for revenue is $368.4 million. On the bottom line, the average EPS estimate is $0.37.

Next year's average estimate for revenue is $1.37 billion. The average EPS estimate is $1.28.

Investor sentiment
The stock has a three-star rating (out of five) at Motley Fool CAPS, with 1,092 members out of 1,182 rating the stock outperform, and 90 members rating it underperform. Among 219 CAPS All-Star picks (recommendations by the highest-ranked CAPS members), 201 give Cree a green thumbs-up, and 18 give it a red thumbs-down.

Of Wall Street recommendations tracked by S&P Capital IQ, the average opinion on Cree is outperform, with an average price target of $48.14.

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Friday, April 26, 2013

Is the New Chevy Silverado Really Good Enough?

There has been a lot of virtual ink spilled on the virtues (or lack thereof) of General Motors' (NYSE: GM  ) all-new full-sized pickups, the Chevy Silverado and GMC Sierra. Will they have what it takes to gain ground on the pickup sales leader, Ford's (NYSE: F  ) acclaimed F-Series? In this video, Fool.com contributor John Rosevear argues that GM's new truck twins will be better than many think -- and points to one feature in particular that could end up giving Ford's marketers fits.

General Motors is a buy? Seriously?
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Bank of America's $70 Billion Green-Lending Bonanza

In the following video, Motley Fool financial analysts Matt Koppenheffer and David Hanson discuss Bank of America's (NYSE: BAC  ) massive lending initiatives toward green energy. The bank recently met its goal of $20 billion worth of financing activities in areas such as solar and wind power, energy efficiency, and hybrid cars, and it has now set a new goal of an additional $50 billion over the next 10 years. Is this a win for investors, or are these initiatives still too risky?

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Thursday, April 25, 2013

Here's How International Speedway Is Making You So Much Cash

Although business headlines still tout earnings numbers, many investors have moved past net earnings as a measure of a company's economic output. That's because earnings are very often less trustworthy than cash flow, since earnings are more open to manipulation based on dubious judgment calls.

Earnings' unreliability is one of the reasons Foolish investors often flip straight past the income statement to check the cash flow statement. In general, by taking a close look at the cash moving in and out of the business, you can better understand whether the last batch of earnings brought money into the company, or merely disguised a cash gusher with a pretty headline.

Calling all cash flows
When you are trying to buy the market's best stocks, it's worth checking up on your companies' free cash flow once a quarter or so, to see whether it bears any relationship to the net income in the headlines. That's what we do with this series. Today, we're checking in on International Speedway (Nasdaq: ISCA  ) , whose recent revenue and earnings are plotted below.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Data is current as of last fully reported fiscal quarter. Dollar values in millions. FCF = free cash flow. FY = fiscal year. TTM = trailing 12 months.

Over the past 12 months, International Speedway generated $78.2 million cash while it booked net income of $51.0 million. That means it turned 12.7% of its revenue into FCF. That sounds pretty impressive.

All cash is not equal
Unfortunately, the cash flow statement isn't immune from nonsense, either. That's why it pays to take a close look at the components of cash flow from operations, to make sure that the cash flows are of high quality. What does that mean? To me, it means they need to be real and replicable in the upcoming quarters, rather than being offset by continual cash outflows that don't appear on the income statement (such as major capital expenditures).

For instance, cash flow based on cash net income and adjustments for non-cash income-statement expenses (like depreciation) is generally favorable. An increase in cash flow based on stiffing your suppliers (by increasing accounts payable for the short term) or shortchanging Uncle Sam on taxes will come back to bite investors later. The same goes for decreasing accounts receivable; this is good to see, but it's ordinary in recessionary times, and you can only increase collections so much. Finally, adding stock-based compensation expense back to cash flows is questionable when a company hands out a lot of equity to employees and uses cash in later periods to buy back those shares.

So how does the cash flow at International Speedway look? Take a peek at the chart below, which flags questionable cash flow sources with a red bar.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Data is current as of last fully reported fiscal quarter. Dollar values in millions. TTM = trailing 12 months.

When I say "questionable cash flow sources," I mean items such as changes in taxes payable, tax benefits from stock options, and asset sales, among others. That's not to say that companies booking these as sources of cash flow are weak, or are engaging in any sort of wrongdoing, or that everything that comes up questionable in my graph is automatically bad news. But whenever a company is getting more than, say, 10% of its cash from operations from these dubious sources, investors ought to make sure to refer to the filings and dig in.

With questionable cash flows amounting to only 8.5% of operating cash flow, International Speedway's cash flows look clean. Within the questionable cash flow figure plotted in the TTM period above, other operating activities (which can include deferred income taxes, pension charges, and other one-off items) provided the biggest boost, at 4.2% of cash flow from operations. Overall, the biggest drag on FCF came from capital expenditures, which consumed 49.4% of cash from operations. International Speedway investors may also want to keep an eye on accounts receivable, because the TTM change is 2.5 times greater than the average swing over the past 5 fiscal years.

A Foolish final thought
Most investors don't keep tabs on their companies' cash flow. I think that's a mistake. If you take the time to read past the headlines and crack a filing now and then, you're in a much better position to spot potential trouble early. Better yet, you'll improve your odds of finding the underappreciated home-run stocks that provide the market's best returns.

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We can help you keep tabs on your companies with My Watchlist, our free, personalized stock tracking service.

Add International Speedway to My Watchlist.

Tuesday, April 23, 2013

Cats Prove to Have Incredible Selling Power for Hasbro

Yesterday, Hasbro (NASDAQ: HAS  ) announced that it had managed a 2% increase in revenue, thanks, in part, to a tiny metal cat. Earlier in the quarter, the company launched a campaign to pick one of the classic Monopoly playing pieces to be replaced. As a result, Hasbro generated 2 billion visits to its contest pages and experienced a meaningful increase in Monopoly sales. It ended up getting rid of the iron -- which was never going to be as good as the thimble -- and replaced it with a cat.

The headline was positive, as the company beat analysts' expectations, but the reality was less favorable. Hasbro posted a $6.7 million loss for the quarter, which was a fall even from its $2.6 million loss last year. Much of that was related to the ongoing restructuring of the business, which cost about $29 million in the quarter.

Fixing what's broken
The restructuring of Hasbro has been going on for a while now, and the company is hoping to see results soon. The company has been slimming down the number of products that it offers, and focusing on a few core concepts to drive growth. That cost-cutting exercise should begin to pay off in the next quarter, according to management. That could be a big win for investors, as underlying income -- setting the restructuring aside -- actually increased. The company has said that by 2014 the program will result in $100 million in savings per year.

The problems at Hasbro will almost always stem from its position among competitors. Foremost among those is Mattel (NASDAQ: MAT  ) , which stormed its last quarter. The company increased revenue by 7% and earnings per share by $0.09, up to $0.11 per share last quarter. Mattel has been riding the value in its American Girl and Monster High brands.

For its part, Hasbro has been trying to get more out of all its lines, but has had trouble with its boys category. Last quarter, sales were down 20% in boys, due in part to difficult comparisons to a good quarter last year. The company is hoping that the Beyblade and Angry Birds brands continue to perform well, and that it can see some more growth in its Transformers and G.I. Joe brands.

The future of Hasbro
Some of the best options for growth may come from the company's Star Wars merchandise. Now that Disney (NYSE: DIS  ) has picked up the brand, it's announced ambitious plans to release one Star Wars movie a year, starting in 2015. The company is going to alternate trilogy material with stand-alone films. That should generate all kinds of good vibes for the brand, and should result in strong sales for Hasbro.

But 2015 is a ways off, and there's a lot of ground to cover between now and then. Hasbro needs to start seeing some of the cost savings that it's planned for, and get its boys category back in the black. If it can manage to get through the next 18 months in strong fashion, then it should be well placed to take advantage of the new films. If all else fails, it could just start making cat toys, I suppose.

It's easy to forget that Walt Disney is more than just the House of Mouse. True, Disney amusement parks around the world hosted more than 121 million guests in 2011. But from its vast catalog of characters to its monster collection of media networks, much of Disney's allure for investors lies in its diversity, and The Motley Fool's premium research report lays out the case for investing in Disney today. This report includes the key items investors must watch as well as the opportunities and threats the company faces going forward. So don't miss out -- simply click here now to claim your copy today.

Sunday, April 21, 2013

Lessons for Vodafone Group From BT Group and British Sky Broadcasting Group

LONDON -- Things are getting personal between BT  (LSE: BT-A  ) (NYSE: BT  ) and Sky  (LSE: BSY  ) . The telecoms company is muscling in on Sky's lucrative sports channel business, and the 39% News Corp.-owned pay-TV broadcaster doesn't like it.

Last year BT bought rights to screen Premier League football and Premiership rugby. It's miffed that Sky is refusing to run adverts for its new sports channel, and has asked industry regulator Ofcom to intervene. Yesterday Sky's Corporate Affairs director penned a letter to the Financial Times, saying of BT that "this £22 billion gorilla in puppy's clothing would do well to look at its own double standards." BT is also undercutting the price Sky charges pubs for its sports channel, something that's likely to hit Sky's bottom line.

These spats are visible signs of some big industry trends at play, around convergence, bundling, and content.

Bundling
A few years ago BT and Sky wouldn't have seemed obvious competitors, but technology is forcing the convergence of disparate players. Sky has used its strong sports-led content to build the biggest pay-TV company in Europe. As that's broadened to include broadband, its business overlaps with BT's.

The marketing ploy of bundling services together ramps up the stakes. "Triple-play" bundling of TV, broadband, and fixed-line phone has in-built economies, and helps to make customer subscriptions more "sticky." BT's move into TV is as much defensive as aggressive, to stop Sky and Virgin Media poaching its broadband customers.

The 4th dimension
Virgin -- about to be taken over by Liberty Global -- is pushing quadruple-play bundles with mobile phone connection included. As wireless services become more data-hungry, that's likely to become more popular.

The first quadruple services were offered by Verizon, Vodafone's (LSE: VOD  ) partner in its U.S. joint-venture Verizon Wireless. There's possibly a lesson about Vodafone in these moves. The mobile provider shrewdly built up its backhaul fixed-line infrastructure with the acquisition of Cable & Wireless, but some analysts see its lack of cable assets as a strategic weakness.

Vodafone has been rumored to be interested in Kabel Deutschland, which would take it into bundled services in continental Europe. If Vodafone swaps its U.S. interests for a large pile of cash, that's the sort of asset it's likely to buy.

Content
The explosion of data capacity puts a premium on quality content. One company exploiting that trend, shifting from a purely advertising-driven business model, is broadcaster ITV  (LSE: ITV  ) . Rumors of a private equity bid abound, but with a market cap of 5 billion pounds, it could be a mold-breaking acquisition for a telco.

One eminent investor backing the telecoms sector is Invesco Perpetual's Neil Woodford. He has 10% of his funds invested in just two stocks in the sector. And Woodford has an unrivaled record for stock-picking. His high income fund is "the best performing of any fund investing in the U.K. since it launched," according to Hargreaves Lansdown. It has grown at 12.6% a year since 1988.

You can learn more about how Woodford selects stocks and his pick of the telecoms sector in a new report from the Motley Fool: "Eight Shares Held By Britain's Super-Investor." You can download it by clicking here -- it's free.

Why Theravance Shares Roared Higher -- Again

Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.

What: Shares of Theravance (NASDAQ: THRX  ) , a biopharmaceutical company that focuses on central nervous system and respiratory disorders, leapt as much as 19% -- its second double-digit jump this week -- following a positive recommendation from the Food and Drug Administration's panel regarding COPD drug Breo Ellipta.

So what: Breo is a once-daily treatment Theravance co-developed with GlaxoSmithKline (NYSE: GSK  ) that targets long-acting relief for COPD sufferers and is taken as a dry inhalable powder through a device known as Ellipta. The FDA's panel voted 9-4 in favor of recommending approval of the drug, noting that it demonstrated effectiveness in reducing COPD exacerbations and in treating airflow obstruction. Furthermore, a separate vote by the panel of 10-3 indicated that Breo had been proven adequately safe given its proposed indications.

Now what: This is one step closer to Glaxo getting its Advair back-up approved and for Theravance to getting a potential blockbuster approved and on the market. I stand by my assessment that if Breo is approved, Glaxo would be foolish not to buy Theravance; but that's just one man's opinion. As always, keep in mind that just because the FDA's panel recommended approval the FDA is not bound by its panels' recommendation. In this case, I'd have a hard time seeing what would stop Breo from gaining approval unless there was some concern from the FDA about the delivery mechanism or manufacturing, of which neither was brought up during the FDA panel meeting.

Craving more input? Start by adding Theravance to your free and personalized watchlist so you can keep up on the latest news with the company.

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Saturday, April 20, 2013

Anheuser-Busch InBev Finalizes Beer Buyout

Anheuser-Busch Inbev (NYSE: BUD  ) today announced that it has officially (and finally) received government approval to acquire the part of Grupo Modelo it doesn't already own for $20.1 billion.

The U.S. Department of Justice initially sued A-B on Jan. 31 to block the deal, on the grounds that the newly enlarged company would have a near-monopoly on the American beer market.

The terms of the finalized agreement are largely unchanged from what was tentatively decided [link opens in PDF] on Feb. 14. They include Constellation Brands (NYSE: STZ  ) purchasing the 50% ownership of Corona importer Crown Imports that it doesn't already own. Modelo and Constellation formed Crown as a joint venture.

Constellation President and CEO Rob Sands called the agreement "the most transformational event" in his company's history, citing nearly doubled sales, increased earnings and cash flow, and significantly more diverse growth opportunities.

The deal includes Anheuser handing over Grupo Modelo's Piedras Negras brewery to Constellation. The brewery currently supplies 60% of U.S. demand for Crown's products (primarily Corona beer), but a three-year, $400 million expansion project will push production up to meet 100% of the U.S.'s Corona cravings.

Constellation said it will "have full control of its production and supply chain and have full rights to create line extensions and new brands to continue to drive the business." The February outline of terms had Constellation paying $4.75 billion.

Pending final court approvals, the transaction is expected to close sometime in June.

"The proposed settlement ... will create an independent, fully integrated and economically viable competitor to ABI. This is a win for the $80 billion U.S. beer market and consumers," said Bill Baer, assistant attorney general in charge of the Department of Justice's Antitrust Division.

link

Friday, April 19, 2013

Why Bank of America Is Waffling Today

Since reporting earnings Wednesday morning, Bank of America (NYSE: BAC  ) lost 6.5% through trading yesterday. The initial response to B of A's earnings was largely negative due to reported revenue that missed expectations -- even though continued improvements in the bank's operations resulted in quadrupled earnings. The bank opened 1% higher this morning, giving some hope to the possibility of regaining some of the traction it's lost in the past two days, but quickly fell within minutes of the opening bell. As of 10:15 a.m. EDT, Bank of America is sitting at a 0.8% gain.

Earnings disappointments continue
This earnings season hasn't been very favorable for the big four banks, with many investors being disappointed in underlying data points that caused improvements in earnings to be largely set aside. This was the case last week for both JPMorgan Chase  (NYSE: JPM  ) and Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC  ) , which both reported record first-quarter earnings. However, both banks reported softening in the mortgage market, leaving investors with doubts about revenue growth for future quarters.

Bank of America reported an improvement in its mortgage origination operations, though it missed analyst expectations for revenue, which generated the same response from investors, leading to a big drop over the past two days. But while there are many voices asserting displeasure in BAC's report, there are an equal number citing vast improvements in the bank's operations and underscoring the importance of looking beyond what analyst expect.

New developments
Fueling this morning's drop may be something other than continued investor disappointment in the bank's earnings -- insurer AIG (NYSE: AIG  ) has just won an important fight in the continuing legal battle against Bank of America. In a suit filed back in August of 2011, AIG is seeking damages for losses caused by mortgage-backed securities sold by B of A's Countrywide and Merrill Lynch segments. The insurer contends that Countrywide and Merrill Lynch misrepresented the securities, leading to AIG's losses.

This morning, a federal appeals court overturned a prior ruling blocking the transfer of the case to a New York State court, which AIG argues is the correct venue for the case. This is a big win for AIG as the delay in this case was largely due to this issue. If AIG wins the case overall, Bank of America may have to pay up to $10 billion in claims related to the $28 billion in securities sold to AIG.

A day at a time
As always, be careful how you assess a day's movements. Even though there is new information that could affect Bank of America, there remains an underlying strength in the continued improvements within the bank -- giving it the momentum to continue growing. As a Foolish investor, remember that one day's changes won't always stick with the company for the long term, so if you're confident in the fundamentals of the company, don't let one piece of news or a sell-off scare you away. 

Bank of America's stock doubled in 2012. Is there more yet to come? With significant challenges still ahead, it's critical to have a solid understanding of this megabank before adding it to your portfolio. In The Motley Fool's premium research report on B of A, analysts Anand Chokkavelu, CFA, and Matt Koppenheffer, Financials bureau chief, lift the veil on the bank's operations, including detailing three reasons to buy and three reasons to sell. Click here now to claim your copy.

Thursday, April 18, 2013

AutoNation Beats on Both Top and Bottom Lines

AutoNation (NYSE: AN  ) reported earnings on April 18. Here are the numbers you need to know.

The 10-second takeaway
For the quarter ended March 31 (Q1), AutoNation beat slightly on revenues and beat expectations on earnings per share.

Compared to the prior-year quarter, revenue grew. Non-GAAP earnings per share grew significantly. GAAP earnings per share grew significantly.

Gross margins dropped, operating margins were steady, net margins were steady.

Revenue details
AutoNation booked revenue of $4.10 billion. The 11 analysts polled by S&P Capital IQ hoped for sales of $4.03 billion on the same basis. GAAP reported sales were 12% higher than the prior-year quarter's $3.66 billion.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Dollar amounts in millions. Non-GAAP figures may vary to maintain comparability with estimates.

EPS details
EPS came in at $0.68. The 14 earnings estimates compiled by S&P Capital IQ predicted $0.64 per share. Non-GAAP EPS of $0.68 for Q1 were 21% higher than the prior-year quarter's $0.56 per share. GAAP EPS of $0.67 for Q1 were 20% higher than the prior-year quarter's $0.56 per share.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Non-GAAP figures may vary to maintain comparability with estimates.

Margin details
For the quarter, gross margin was 16.2%, 30 basis points worse than the prior-year quarter. Operating margin was 4.1%, much about the same as the prior-year quarter. Net margin was 2.0%, much about the same as the prior-year quarter. (Margins calculated in GAAP terms.)

Looking ahead
Next quarter's average estimate for revenue is $4.31 billion. On the bottom line, the average EPS estimate is $0.73.

Next year's average estimate for revenue is $17.07 billion. The average EPS estimate is $2.88.

Investor sentiment
The stock has a two-star rating (out of five) at Motley Fool CAPS, with 167 members out of 230 rating the stock outperform, and 63 members rating it underperform. Among 70 CAPS All-Star picks (recommendations by the highest-ranked CAPS members), 55 give AutoNation a green thumbs-up, and 15 give it a red thumbs-down.

Of Wall Street recommendations tracked by S&P Capital IQ, the average opinion on AutoNation is hold, with an average price target of $45.09.

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Add AutoNation to My Watchlist.

Monday, April 15, 2013

Core Labs Can Keep Drilling Up Strong Earnings

Solar Energy Takes Over the Grid

Solar energy accounted for 100% of new power generation built in the U.S. in the month of March. Over 44 MW of solar capacity from seven projects in California, Nevada, New Jersey, Hawaii, Arizona, and North Carolina were added to the grid last month, and that doesn't include distributed solar, which goes on commercial and residential rooftops. Those sources likely added dozens of MW to the grid as well.

One month can be an aberration in new power generation, but the trend of solar accounting for a large percentage of new generation is unmistakable. According to FERC, about 30% of utility-scale capacity added in the first quarter came from solar. Again, this doesn't account for distributed solar so it's possible that solar accounted for around 50% of total electricity capacity added so far in 2013.

The companies making it happen
When you talk about building utility-scale projects there are two major contributors, First Solar (NASDAQ: FSLR  ) and SunPower (NASDAQ: SPWR  ) . Both companies are currently constructing projects that are hundreds of MW in size, accounting for a majority of the new generation in the U.S. right now.

While utility-scale solar is hot right now its future may not be as bright. The projects being built right now were contracted years ago and utilities don't have the appetite for more of them. Today, distributed solar is where we can find consistent growth.

SunPower is a big player in distributed solar through its lease program and high-efficiency modules, but SolarCity (NASDAQ: SCTY  ) is the largest installer in the country. The company is yet to be profitable but it is building a large network of installations that pay predictable cash flows month after month. Eventually, this should lead to a highly profitable business for investors.

Foolish bottom line
Solar power is a growing piece of our energy pie and investors who play it right can make a lot of money during its growth trend.

One way to play the market is with First Solar, who has made some moves recently that change its future for the better. If you're looking for continuing updates and guidance on the company whenever news breaks, The Motley Fool has created a brand-new report that details every must know side of this stock. To get started, simply click here now.

Sunday, April 14, 2013

5 Top Dividend Stocks for the Long Term

Equity investors who are looking for income are often tempted by a particular stock's dividend yield. We believe they'd be wiser to focus on a company's expected dividend growth. That's the best way to earn long-term total returns.

Look at the amazing results of McDonald's (NYSE: MCD  ) over the past several decades, for example. The company has been able to deliver outstanding total returns by paying out higher and higher dividends each year over an extremely long time horizon. Ultimately, investors are willing to pay higher and higher prices for shares that offer a growing stream of dividends.

Given the importance of dividend growth for driving long-term, total returns, we've identified five remarkable companies that are projected to grow their dividends significantly over the next five years.

1. Coach (NYSE: COH  )
Coach designs, markets, and sells fashion handbags, apparel, and accessories.

Investing thesis: Coach will likely deliver increases in both its share price and its dividend payout over the next five years. That attractive combination could result in multibagger total returns for investors over the long term.

2. McDonald's
McDonald's is a global fast-food restaurant powerhouse.

Investing thesis: McDonald's has increased its dividend each and every year since it first started paying one in 1976. And the iconic fast-food franchise shows no signs of slowing down its ever-growing dividend payouts. The end result for investors will be market-beating total returns in the future.

3. Western Union (NYSE: WU  )
Western Union is the global leader of money transfers and payment services.

Investing thesis: Western Union's dividend will grow as the company's earnings steadily rise, and the company increases the payout ratio over time.

4. Intel (NASDAQ: INTC  )
Intel is the leading manufacturer of microprocessors.

Investing thesis: With a 4% dividend yield and the potential to increase its dividend 8%-12% per year, Intel's total return should outperform the market, even during tough industry conditions.

5. Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL  )
Apple creates mobile communication and media devices, personal computers, and portable digital music players. It also sells software, services, peripherals, networking solutions, and third- party digital content and applications that support its devices.

Investing thesis: Apple began paying a dividend again in 2012 -- the first in 17 years! With an incredible lineup of existing products, a rock-solid balance sheet, and tremendous growth possibilities, Apple offers one of the best risk-adjusted total return opportunities in the market over the next five years.

Improving the odds of beating the market
We feel confident that all five of the companies mentioned above will outperform the broader market over the long term. If you're looking for some more long-term investing ideas with great dividends, you're invited to check out The Motley Fool's brand-new special report, "The 3 Dow Stocks Dividend Investors Need." It's absolutely free, so simply click here now and get your copy today.

Saturday, April 13, 2013

This Is the Real Danger of the Irrational Exuberance Surrounding Bitcoins

If you're anything of a long-term investor, someone who's studied economics, or simply a fan of finance, you've probably looked on with disdain as the electronic currency known as Bitcoins has exploded from just $20 per fictitious token to a high of $266 in less than two months.


Source: Casascius, wikimedia.commons 

The currency, if it can even be called that, was described in good detail by my colleague Alex Planes earlier this week. Its value is derived not from any sort of monetary backing -- no government or monetary body recognizes a Bitcoin as an acceptable form of currency -- but from the acceptance of other retailers and individuals who are willing to assign a monetary value to a Bitcoin and use that figure to exchange goods and services. Its value is also derived from its designed scarcity -- there are only a fixed amount of bitcoins to go around.

As you might have assumed, as someone with a penchant for thinking long-term and having studied economics in college, I think there's a clear and present danger investing in something that essentially doesn't exist beyond cyberspace. However, the truly scary part of Bitcoins isn't that they aren't backed by a government entity, but is ingrained in the fact that it's spawning a new generation of emotional and irrational investors who will get the completely wrong impression of how "investing" works.

History tends to repeat itself
You may have come across the phrase that history tends to repeat itself; I believe this is a perfect case in point to describe the trading action in Bitcoins over the past six months.

In 1999 you could throw a dart at the newspaper, purchase the stock your dart landed on, and probably have come out a winner. Earnings, cash flow, and valuation were all placed on the back burner as the emergence of the Internet as a commerce medium was putting all of those "archaic" investment tools back in the box. The technology-driven Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQINDEX: ^IXIC  ) would eventually cross 5,000, and both Cisco Systems (NASDAQ: CSCO  ) and Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT  ) would top $500 billion in market value. Near their peaks, Cisco traded for around 120 times earnings, while Microsoft was valued at a multiple of 55. It was truly a time of emotional and irrational investing, and Wall Street encouraged it just as much as speculative traders promoted it.

This week, I came across an article from the Silicon Valley Business Journal dated March 19, 2000, just nine days after the Nasdaq's all-time record close. In that article, it's stated that 37 investment banks at the time had "strong buy" or "buy" rating on Cisco without a single "sell" or even "hold" rating. Furthermore, George Kelly, a Wall Street analyst who was working for Morgan Stanley Dean Witter at the time and was a player in bringing Cisco public in 1990, was quoted as saying in his defense of Cisco's enormous P/E multiple: "A low P/E usually signals investors are uncomfortable." Imagine that! Paul Weinstein, a founding partner of Azure Capital Partners and an analyst with Credit Suisse First Boston at the time, would make the bold claim that "Cisco could be the first trillion-dollar market cap company ... within two to three years."

Needless to say, most predictions fizzled out, with Cisco's $557 billion market cap now being worth about $115 billion, Microsoft down to just $241 billion, and the Nasdaq Composite still more than 1,700 points from an all-time high.

This week, we witnessed the complete collapse of Bitcoin euphoria as well, with the cyber-currency falling from its $266 peak to as low as $54 as of this writing.

What went wrong?
What went wrong in both cases is that there wasn't any substance to back up speculators' euphoria, and once everyone realized that nothing more than hope was buoying stocks and Bitcoins, both bubbles began to collapse in epic fashion.

The Internet bubble of 2000 wiped out trillions in market value and bankrupted companies that previously had carried market values in the tens of billions. The Bitcoin bubble clearly won't have the same trillion-dollar effect on the economy, but it still could have a notable ripple effect on the pocketbooks of Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss, who've collectively invested about $11 million in Bitcoins. The brothers may have made it a point to avoid investing in something backed by the U.S. dollar, which they see as controlled by politics, but inadvertently chose to throw $11 million into a non-physical currency that pits emotional traders against one another with no tangible price drivers other than greed and hope. 

History will keep repeating itself
The worst part about Bitcoins and the Internet bubble of 2000 is that it will perpetuate the get-rich-quick mentality and ensure that another bout of irrational exuberance and emotional trading will occur in the future.

A more recent example is the debut of social-media powerhouse Facebook (NASDAQ: FB  ) , which tipped the scales with a $100 billion valuation in the secondary markets before its IPO. Investors had placed a valuation of nearly 100 times sales on the company based on the assumption that it would grow into the next Internet powerhouse. The problem, as I described in August shortly after its IPO, is that investors are poor judges of disruptive technologies. It isn't that we can't recognize a great idea when we see one; it's that we assume it'll be a success almost immediately.

The same can be said for Bitcoin. It'd be wrong of me to assume it has absolutely no chance of being a viable currency medium over the long run, but speculators' opinions that this is the greatest thing since sliced bread probably has no bearing, either, since there are no tangible price-driving factors that would make the currency move higher outside of greed and hope. And the last time I checked, greed and hope weren't investing strategies -- not even by Gordon Gekko's standards anymore! (Link opens a YouTube video.)

The sad reality is that the Bitcoin bubble will create a new generation of traders that have no real understanding of how the market truly works. Don't get me wrong; the stock market is only as rational and efficient as the investors and brokerages behind those trades. However, the effectiveness of the stock market is a far cry from an emotionally driven, non-tangible, hope- and greed-based cyber-currency that is the Bitcoin.

Has Cisco gone from bubble-licious to value-licious?
Once a high-flying tech darling, Cisco is now on the radar of value-oriented dividend lovers. Get the lowdown on the routing juggernaut in The Motley Fool's premium report. Click here now to get started.

Friday, April 12, 2013

Facebook Home Now Available for Download

Social network Facebook's (NASDAQ: FB  ) new Home suite of software apps and features is now available for download in Google (NASDAQ: GOOG  ) Play. Only a select number of newer devices made by Samsung and HTC are currently supported.

HTC also launched its First smartphone today, which is the first device to include Facebook Home pre-installed and exclusive to AT&T. The HTC First is a midrange phone priced at $100 on contract. Facebook Home may be turned off on the First, leaving users with a stock Android operating system.

Facebook Home is an important mobile strategy for the social network to increase user engagement, and was officially unveiled last week. Home is a layer of services that get integrated into Android devices. Part of Home is a Cover feed that replaces a smartphone's home and lock screens and shows what friends are doing. There are also ways to chat and message friends more easily, as well as a notification system.

 

link

Thursday, April 11, 2013

Disney's Hidden Magic

At Tier 1 Investments, I seek out and invest in elite businesses. These include companies with the most valuable brands, best management, superior products and services, and strongest competitive advantages.

Disney (NYSE: DIS) is, as the saying goes, much more than the sum of its parts. And when those parts include incredible brands like Pixar, Marvel, ESPN, and now LucasFilms, any competition will pale in comparison. But that's not the only trick up Mickey's sleeve.


It's easy to forget that Walt Disney is more than just the House of Mouse. True, Disney amusement parks around the world hosted more than 121 million guests in 2011. But, from its vast catalog of characters, to its monster collection of media networks, much of Disney's allure for investors lies in its diversity, and The Motley Fool's premium research report lays out the case for investing in Disney today. This report includes the key items investors must watch, as well as the opportunities and threats the company faces going forward. So don't miss out -- simply click here now to claim your copy today.

Wednesday, April 10, 2013

What Makes Starbucks Stand Out?

Starbucks (NASDAQ: SBUX  ) has a lot going for it as an investment: sector leadership, loyal fan base, expanding global footprint, and strong financial fundamentals. Is that enough to justify its addition to your portfolio today? After all, we don't invest based on where a company has been but where it's going. The past offers a useful guide to the shape of a company's future, but it can't paint in too many details. We've got to do that ourselves.

Let's take a closer look at Starbucks' fundamentals to see if it really is the top-notch investment it's held up to be.

Under the lid
My fellow Fool Sean Williams has already given a bullish take on Starbucks, focused on the company's ability to handle new challenges and find new sources of growth. I'd like to look at the numbers behind that growth. Let's start with some fundamentals -- revenue, earnings per share, and free cash flow:

SBUX Total Return Price Chart

Source: SBUX Total Return Price data by YCharts.

This is a pretty empathic vote in Starbucks' favor. Not only has EPS grown far in advance of revenue, but Starbucks' free cash flow has consistently grown even faster. It's great to see a company consistently pushing its profitability higher, even though 33% growth in revenue isn't too shabby, either. However, there's one potential red flag here -- since the start of 2012, Starbucks' share price has grown beyond its earnings per share, leading to higher valuations than usual:

SBUX PE Ratio TTM Chart

Source: SBUX P/E Ratio TTM data by YCharts.

The P/E 10 ratio is the company's current share price divided by the average of its last decade's worth of earnings per share. Starbucks isn't that old, but it's grown so quickly in the past decade that the relevant numbers of even four years ago have been left in the dust. On the other hand, it is worth noting that Starbucks' standard P/E ratio has actually grown faster than its P/E 10 ratio -- it's up nearly 30% since the start of 2010, compared to a 17% increase in the P/E 10. Is that really significant? Not particularly -- Starbucks' average P/E over the last two years is 27.4, fewer than three points below its current valuation. The company was more highly valued in mid-2012. I wouldn't worry too much about it, as Starbucks has consistently shown that it can outperform on the fundamentals.

There is one simple economic trend that's worked in Starbucks' favor: coffee prices. After a big run-up from 2009 to 2011, the price of coffee has gone back to levels last touched five years ago:

Coffee Arabica Price Chart

Source: Coffee Arabica Price data by YCharts.

Compare this to the first graph, particularly to Starbucks' free cash flow. Both coffee prices and free cash flow crept higher at roughly the same rate. When the price of coffee declined, Starbucks kept the cash flowing just as well as before. Pricing power matters here, and few brands have the power of Starbucks. Both J.M. Smucker and Kraft cut the prices of their packaged coffees in February to entice consumers. Starbucks hasn't lowered prices in its stores since 2009, and has no reported plans to reduce the costs of its brews despite this downward trend.

It seems clear that this is a win-win for Starbucks. If coffee prices go back up, Starbucks can raise its prices again. If coffee prices go down, Starbucks doesn't have to do anything, and its loyal consumers will pay the price regardless.

The greatest threat to Starbucks is purportedly McDonald's (NYSE: MCD  ) and its McCafes or Dunkin Brands (NASDAQ: DNKN  ) and its popular anti-Starbucks branding. These are legitimate threats, but do they really strike at the heart of what makes Starbucks work? Probably not -- neither restaurant chain has ever been seen as a gathering place or a social hub, and I doubt that either will somehow convince the world otherwise anytime soon. The "accessibility" of Starbucks is one of its greatest assets, encouraging customers to come and sit for a while, and it's something no other beverage slinger has really managed to replicate.

Starbucks may not be able to grow forever, but it should be able to push ahead of the pack for some time longer. Consider this stock a solid cornerstone for a long-term portfolio: steady, stable, durable, and market-beating. Plus, it pays you back, with a dividend that's already doubled since mid-2010. What's not to like?

The Motley Fool's chief investment officer has selected his No. 1 stock for the next year. Find out which stock it is in the brand-new free report: "The Motley Fool's Top Stock for 2013." Just click here to access the report and find out the name of this under-the-radar company.

Tuesday, April 9, 2013

Apple's Not Innovating Fast Enough

It's been six months since the last major product announcement from Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL  ) , and the tech giant is allowing competitors to catch-up. Google's (NASDAQ: GOOG  ) Android, Samsung's Galaxy S4, and even Microsoft's (NASDAQ: MSFT  ) Windows Phone 8 have had time to improve products while Apple has largely sat on the sidelines. Erin Miller sat down with Travis Hoium to see what Apple needs to do to excite consumers and investors again.

There's no doubt that Apple is at the center of technology's largest revolution ever and that longtime shareholders have been handsomely rewarded, with more than 1,000% gains. However, there is a debate raging as to whether Apple remains a buy. The Motley Fool's senior technology analyst and managing bureau chief, Eric Bleeker, is prepared to fill you in on both reasons to buy and reasons to sell Apple and what opportunities are left for the company (and your portfolio) going forward. To get instant access to his latest thinking on Apple, simply click here now.