How good was the Super Bowl for Twitter?

SAN FRANCISCO — As investors get ready for a look at Twitter's first quarterly financial report as a public company after the close of markets Wednesday, there's some mixed data out on how good the Super Bowl was for its business.

The number of Top 100 brand advertisers buying sponsored posts on the social media site during the big game rose to 29, from eight last year, according to the research firm Mass Relevance.

Yet the number of tweets during the Super Bowl rose a tiny 3%, to 25 million, after surging 76% last year, according to ow.ly, a website that tracks Twitter activity.

The starkly different views of its performance during the world's most-popular media event reflect just how nascent Twitter's business model is, as many in the tech industry are still trying to figure out the best way to measure it.

Likewise for Twitter stock analysts on Wall Street, who still haven't reached a consensus on the company's near-term growth trajectory.

The average fourth-quarter revenue estimate from the 27 stock analysts who cover the company is $218 million.

John Shinal, technology columnist for USA TODAY.(Photo: USA TODAY)

That figure translates into revenue growth of 94% from the same period a year earlier.

But analysts' individual estimates are all over the map, varying widely from a low of $195 million, or 74% annual growth, to a high of $238 million, or 112%.

The bullish expectations are in line with Twitter's recent revenue trajectory, as it posted year-over-year growth of 110%, 105% and 105% (again), respectively, during the first three quarters of last year.

The bearish analysts, on the other hand, see the company's growth rate decelerating.

Wall Street had the same p! roblem getting an accurate read on Facebook's early growth, after struggling to figure out whether the shift from PCs to mobile devices was good or bad for the social network.

Initially, investors thought it was bearish, as Facebook shares plunged 40% during their first year of public trading -- and were chopped in half during their first three months.

The stock fell 16% the day after its first public earnings report in July 2012, even though Facebook results were in line with expectations.

Twitter shares, by contrast, have surged nearly 50% in their first three months of public trading, even though no one on Wall Street expects the company to make a profit this year.

That bull run out of the gate has given Twitter a market valuation that sounds crazy -- even by the standards of the ongoing Internet stock bubble.

At $36 billion in market value, Twitter has a price-to-sales ratio of 32, based on Wall Street's 2014 revenue expectations.

That's more than double Facebook's ratio of 14 times this year's sales, and LinkedIn's, at 12 times.

Those ratios have held within a tight range over the past six months, suggesting Wall Street traders are confident of their ability to value those two companies.

But while Wall Street has been consistent of late in trading shares of LinkedIn and Facebook, Twitter is still more of a mystery.

Since the company was built from day one for mobile traffic, which is where digital advertising growth is headed, Twitter may yet sustain its lofty valuation.

But with a price-to-sales ratio twice as high as Facebook -- whose own shares have doubled since July as mobile ad growth has turbo-charged revenue growth -- Twitter shares look priced for a bullish report.

Anything less than that will likely put some near-term selling pressure on the stock, while analysts take another shot at forecasting the company's growth.

John Shinal has covered tech and financial markets for 15 years at Bloomberg, BusinessWeek, the San Fr! ancisco C! hronicle, Dow Jones MarketWatch, Wall Street Journal Digital Network and others. Follow him on Twitter: @johnshinal.