Thursday, January 29, 2015

Tech stocks: Twitter rises, BlackBerry sinks

Having already crossed the $70 mark, Twitter stock continues to surge.

Shares of the social network are up 3% in pre-market trading at $72.05. Over the past 30 days, Twitter stock has skyrocketed by 75%.

The reason? According to a Bloomberg report following Twitter's Christmas Eve climb, investors think the company will be able to rake in more advertising revenue.

Twitter has been on a tear since its initial public offering launched last month, when shares were priced at $26.

Meanwhile, BlackBerry shares are down 1.4% after co-founder Michael Lazaridis revealed he was dropping a bid to acquire the struggling smartphone maker.

The Wall Street Journal reports Lazaridis also cut back his stake in the company to under 5%.

This comes one week after the company announced a whopping $4.4 billion loss for the third quarter, as its lineup of BlackBerry 10 devices remain weak. BlackBerry also revealed a five-year partnership with Taiwanese manufacturer Foxconn to create a smartphone for "fast-growing markets."

Follow Brett Molina on Twitter: @bam923.

Wednesday, January 28, 2015

Extended Stay, Zulily Headline Another Busy Week for IPOs

Twitter Inc.'s(TWTR) much-anticipated initial public offering may have come and gone, but a year-end torrent of corporate debuts lies ahead.

Hotel chain Extended Stay America Inc.’s debut, expected to raise up to $593 million after today’s close, will kick off another busy week for U.S. IPOs, with 11 deals slated to price. The hotel chain is returning to the public market three years after Blackstone Group L.P(BX)., Centerbridge Partners L.P. and New York hedge fund Paulson & Co. led a $3.9 billion buyout, enabling Extended Stay to exit Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.

Other well-known names on the docket include “Curious George” publisher Houghton Mifflin Harcourt Co., with an IPO slated to raise up to an estimated $292 million late Wednesday. Zulily Inc., a daily deals website for moms, babies and kids, expects its debut to raise up to $207 million after Thursday’s close. The shares will begin trading the day after the deals price.

Farther down the road, Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.’s IPO, expected to be one of the largest ever for the hospitality sector, could price before the end of the year, The Wall Street Journal has reported. The company has filed to raise up to an estimated $1.25 billion. Hotel analysts expect the final number will be closer to $2 billion, the Journal reported.

Meanwhile, Chrysler Group LLC’s chief executive told analysts on a conference call last month the auto maker would be ready to go public by the year’s end. Chrysler filed its initial IPO paperwork in September.

The IPO pipeline also features movie-theater operator AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. and Southeastern Grocers Inc., owner of Winn-Dixie and Bi-Lo grocery stores throughout the Southeast.

Japan stocks slip on rising yen, earnings caution

LOS ANGELES (MarketWatch) -- With the yen holding on to its gains and investors cautious as earnings season kicks off, Japanese stocks slid lower Friday after closing the previous day with some late-session gains. The Nikkei Stock Average (JP:NIK) fell 0.9% to 14,358.28, with the Topix down 0.8%, as the dollar bought 97.36 yen, little changed from 24 hours earlier. The relatively strong yen weighed on some names with high global exposure, as Sharp Corp. (JP:6753) (SHCAF) lost 1%, Pioneer Corp. (JP:6773) (PNCOF) dropped 1.6%, and Bridgestone Corp. (JP:5108) (BRDCF) fell 1.2%. An outlook cut from Canon Inc. (JP:7751) (CAJ) helped send its shares down 1%, while rival Nikon Corp. (JP:7731) (NINOF) lost 1.8%, though Olympus Corp. (JP:7733) (OCPNF) gained 1%. Telecoms were weak, with Softbank Corp. (JP:9984) (SFTBF) falling 2.5%, KDDI Corp. (JP:9433) (KDDIF) down 1.7%, and NTT DoCoMo Inc. (JP:9437) (NTDMF) off 1.1% as a Nikkei business daily report said it would post a mild rise in operating profit for the previous quarter. Among the top gainers, Hitachi Construction Macheriny Co. (JP:6305) (HTCMF) rallied 3.4% on a separate Nikkei report that the company will post a first-half operating profit well above the consensus estimate, while Mitsubishi Motors Corp. (JP:7211) (MMTOF) climbed 4.2% after hiking its fiscal-year profit outlook by 40%. The market appeared to show little reaction to consumer inflation data out just ahead of the open, which printed in line with expectations.

Read the full story:
Asian shares mostly lower; techs struggle in Seoul

Monday, January 26, 2015

At the Open: Dow Industrials Fall 100 Points as Shutdown Continues, Companies Furlough Workers

Stocks continue their slide today as the government shutdown continues and politicians appear set to drag the debt ceiling into the debate.

Associated Press

The S&P 500 has dropped 0.7% to 1,682.30, while the Dow Jones Industrials have fallen 100 points, to 0.7% to 15,033.21.

Nomura’s Alastair Newton explains the risks:

Following the impasse over the continuing resolution, we now see a non-negligible possibility that Congress and the Administration will fail to reach agreement on the debt ceiling without there being a technical default first.

The main risk, as we see it, is that moderate Republicans will hold out beyond 17 October to try to head off possible de-selection by the Tea Party in upcoming primaries, even though related attempts to roll back "Obamacare" are doomed.

Nevertheless, even if the deadline (which may now be later than 17 October) for a deal passes, we see only a very low probability of a default on Treasuries.

However, coupled with the impact of the second round of the sequester, pending a resolution we do expect to see:
–A continuing negative impact on business and consumer sentiment in the US;
–Increased market nervousness as the deadline approaches

Even decent jobless claims data wasn’t enough to lift stocks this morning. Miller Tabak’s Andrew Wilkinson sums up the data and its implications:

The Labor Department issued another healthy and clean claimant count delivering the lowest four-week moving average reading since May 2007. The headline reading of 308,000 claims once again came in below a survey average of 315,000 while prior weekly data was revised up by only 2,000. We continue to wonder quite when the momentum will show up in stronger payrolls – something denied by ADP in its September report and something we are likely to be deprived of on Friday by the government shutdown…

The claims level implies that in a period of rising political uncertainty firms are holding onto workers at a time when the economy outside of Washington appears to be moving ahead with reasonable momentum. In the face of such uncertainty and with lack of clarity on the outlook for the economy such momentum is insufficient to prompt the Fed to commence the tapering process.

Will claims stay that way? Already, manufacturers have started to furlough workers–even if they didn’t show up in today’s numbers. The Wall Street Journal reports:

The partial shutdown of the federal government is leading to layoffs and production disruptions at defense contractors and some manufacturing companies.

United Technologies Corp. (UTX) said on Wednesday that it is preparing to furlough nearly 2,000 workers at its Sikorsky unit, which makes Black Hawk helicopters for the Defense Department, and may have to idle several thousand more workers at its Pratt & Whitney and UTC Aerospace units if the shutdown drags on for weeks.

United Tech has dropped 0.5% to 104.51, while Boeing (BA) has fallen 0.7% to $116.97, both helping to weight down the Dow.

Over at the S&P 500, HCP (HCP) has dropped 2.8% $40.62, making it the biggest loser in the benchmark, after the healthcare REIT fired its CEO. PVH (PVH), meanwhile, has gained 5.7% to $124.06, making it the S&P 500′s biggest winner at 9:48 a.m., after the company said it would sell its GH Bass division.

Texas Industries (TXI) has plunged 7.5% to $61.99 after the construction company said it earned 1 cent a share, below forecasts for 2 cents.

Sunday, January 25, 2015

Foxtons Gain in London Debut Marks U.K. Broker’s Turnaround

Foxtons Group Plc gained 16 percent on the first day of trading in London, marking a turnaround for the property broker three years after it was rescued by lenders when the housing market collapsed.

The shares closed at 267 pence, giving Foxtons a market value of 753 million pounds ($1.2 billion). The London-based broker and its investors sold 390 million pounds of shares at 230 pence each, according to a statement today.

Foxtons, known for the fleet of Mini Coopers used by employees to show homes to clients, is benefiting from London's booming property market, where the average price of a home climbed 9.7 percent in July from a year earlier, according to the U.K.'s Office for National Statistics. BC Partners Ltd., which bought Foxtons in 2007, also sold shares in the IPO.

"House prices are above pre-2007 levels," said Anthony Codling, an analyst at Jefferies Group LLC. "In a market with such strong fundamentals, people have got limited ways to access the U.K. housing market recovery."

Investors committed to buying all Foxtons shares on offer on the first day that investors were allowed to buy into it, people with knowledge of the matter said on Sept. 10.

Zoopla IPO?

Zoopla Ltd, which operates a property website, is considering an IPO that could value the company at more than 1 billion pounds, the Sunday Times reported earlier this month. It would be "a logical move" for housing-market companies to accelerate listing plans, Codling said.

BC Partners bought Foxtons, founded by Jon Hunt in 1981, for about 390 million pounds before losing control in 2010 after creditors reorganized the broker's debt. Last year BC Partners bought back a majority stake, the Daily Telegraph reported.

All but two of Foxtons's 42 branches are in London. Most of the homes it sells are priced at 200,000 pounds to 1.4 million pounds, the company said on Aug. 27.

The share sale comprised a primary offering of 55 million pounds and 335 million pounds of secondary sales by shareholders, directors and employees.

Credit Suisse Group AG (CSGN) and Numis Securities Ltd. managed the sale, along with Canaccord Genuity Ltd. Rothschild acted as financial adviser.

Volumes of IPOs in Europe, the Middle East and Africa have nearly tripled to about $15 billion this year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Deutsche Bank AG is ranked first in managing the sales.

Has Apple Taken a Vacation from Innovation?

Apple has always been about innovation and creation, but for the first time, Jon Markman of Markman Capital Insight, feels Apple's competitors may have taken the lead.

SPEAKER 1: Hello. My guest today is Jon Markman. Hi Jon, nice to see you again.

JON: Hi Nancy, great to be back.

SPEAKER 1: Yeah, well listen. I was reading one of your articles about Apple recently and obviously Carl Icahn just came out and tweeted several times about his new stake in Apple, but you didn’t seem to be such a fan of that. Can you elaborate on that?

JON: Well Icahn is trying to get Apple to go up. He’s got a very large stake for him. I think it’s a $1,000,000,000 stake and he wants them to improve their standing by issuing debt to buy back stock. You know that’s okay. I mean that’s shareholder friendly but it’s kind of a gimmick and I think that it distracts from what Apple should be doing, which is innovating and creating new products.

SPEAKER 1: What do you think? Are they actually innovating? There are rumors around that maybe a new iPhone is coming out. Maybe something a little more expensive and maybe something not so expensive.

JON: Well you know Apple really created the Smart Phone category with its iPhone. There were already good phones out like the Trio at that time from Palm, but they innovated and created that iPhone. They really created the musical device category with the iPod before that. They innovated and created the Tablet market, which is huge with the iPad, and then they spun off a smaller version of the iPad, the iPad Mini, all of which were great innovations and drove Apple Stock higher. Because they were scarce products they also had fantastic margins. In the past few years, Apple seems to have taken a vacation from innovation. The last two phones have been a disaster, both the hardware and on the software side. You can’t really take two years off in this market. In the meantime, their competitors have not stood still; particularly the Android operating system has gotten better and better. It’s taking more and more market share away from Apple. When you lose market share you also lose the opportunity to drive margins higher. Apple’s really finding itself in a very difficult spot right now. They need to catch up to the Android devices and then it needs to surpass them. It’s very hard to do that when you’re losing market share, so I think it’s got a really hard road ahead of it. I think people will be disappointed with it, the next iPhone. There won’t be anything that’s new enough to capture their interest. The next thing that people have on their minds for Apple is something called Apple TV. Nobody knows what this is. It’s like a snipe hunt.

SPEAKER 1: You never found a snipe?

JON: No one’s ever found a snipe and I don’t think anyone’s ever really going to find an Apple TV. The reason that Apple TV is so difficult, whatever it might be, is that they’re trying to find a new way of trying to help people have a new experience in watching television, but in the five years that we’ve been talking about Apple TV, TV has changed dramatically already without Apple. You know it’s already a lot easier to unbundle your cable by watching various shows online through Netflix. HBO and Showtime have also been great innovators, and so although Apple can come out with a new device, those incoming cable companies and the carriers are going to make it very difficult for them to capture any margin in doing so. I think people will be disappointed with that product.

SPEAKER 1: Do you think that they could possibly go the way of BlackBerry or RIM?

JON: You know nobody thought BlackBerry could go the way of BlackBerry. Nobody thought Palm could go the way of Palm. So could Apple implode? Of course it could. I don’t expect it but it certainly could.

SPEAKER 1: Thanks for joining me Jon.

JON: Thank you.

SPEAKER 1: Thanks for being with us on the Moneyshow.com Video Network.


Jon Markman on InvestorPlace More from InvestorPlace Media, LLC Has Apple Taken a Vacation from Innovation?   12 Breakthrough Tech Trends   The Fed Is the Dow's Master  

Saturday, January 24, 2015

Loring Ward Hosts ‘Anti-Product’ Event

Asset manager Loring Ward likes to focus on helping advisors with softer issues, says President and CEO Alex Potts. It did so at its June conference, which wrapped up Thursday in Monterrey, Calif., and it’s engaging in such conference to grow its new (non-turnkey) business.

“It’s an anti-product conference,” Potts (left) said in an interview with AdvisorOne, “with no big banners and no formal sponsors.”

Motivational speaker Juliet Funt, for instance, discussed the important of white space. “You have to block out creative time, shut off your gadgets and deliberately create space rather than give in to cognitive overload from technology and information flows,” he said.

There were also talks on getting referrals, understanding and changing habits. “We were told by one expert that it’s best to communicate with client when something is cold rather than wait until it gets to be a hot topic—like risk tolerance,” Potts said.

The turnkey asset management provider (or TAMP) works with about 850 RIAs and other independent registered reps that rely on Loring Ward portfolios, which are included in platforms used by their “neutral custodians,” such as Fidelity, Pershing (BK), Schwab (SCHW) and TD Ameritrade (AMTD). These relationships represent about $7.7 billion in the client assets managed by the San Jose-based TAMP, Potts explains.

Loring Ward also is expanding its work as a strategist for 800 or other advisors affiliated with independent broker-dealers like Royal Alliance and Securities America. This represents nearly $1 billion in client assets under management for the asset manager.

“This new business is growing rapidly,” said Potts. “It’s for reps who, for example, are moving to a [purely] fee-based business and want help with trading, investment methodology, marketing materials, goal planning and other work [involving] behavioral finance and managing client relationships.”

Dimensional Fund Advisors is Loring Ward’s main asset-class provider, and the relationship goes back to 1990. DFA is looking to add a profitability screen to some of its asset-class-based portfolios, and the 80 financial advisors attending the recent Loring Ward confab got the chance to hash out portfolio issues like risks vs. rewards in person with DFA Co-CEO Eduardo Repetto.

Potts says that the asset manager will share more academic research with advisors at its October conference. “This will be heavy on investment topics and will also include talks on working more with CPAs and estate attorneys,” he said. “The aim is to help advisors do a better job at running their businesses.”

Loring Ward tries to do as much of the heavy lifting of portfolio management as it can for advisors. “We are in the efficient-market camp, so we don’t worry about the next hot manager or what the currently hot manager is doing. This frees us up to take care of clients rather than simply focus on performance.”

That focus, Potts says, should help the asset manager expand its new business while aiding advisors in their quest to do the same. “It’s all about helping advisors with research on investments, growing the business side of their practice or, even better, managing their lives," he said. "We bring resources to them.”

Advisors have a big need for such resources, Potts adds, because they “want simplicity.” Maybe they’ve been mainly selling one line of mutual funds for a while and want to branch out. “We become an adjunct to that,” he noted.  

---

Thursday, January 22, 2015

3 Reasons It Might Be a Good Idea to Ignore the Dow Today

This week is a big one for investors who have been looking for some economic data points to direct their investing. But with so much news coming later in the week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI  ) may not be a reliable guide today as traders wait for more substantial news throughout the remainder of the week. As of 11:45 a.m. EDT, the index is down slightly with a 71-point loss. With more substantial data points yet to come, there are plenty of reasons to just let today's Dow moves go by the wayside.

Reason 1: Pending home sales
This morning's report of signed contracts for existing homes during the month of June showed a 0.4% decline. Though analysts had anticipated a 1% drop, the actual results still mark a fall from May's six-year high and could signal the impact of rising interest rates on sales. One of the more likely culprits, however, is the continued lack of inventory for buyers to choose from. As last week's existing homes sales report noted, the current inventory of existing homes stands at a  5.2-month supply -- well below the level that economists view as a good balance between supply and demand.

Both of the Dow bank component stocks are down this morning, with Bank of America (NYSE: BAC  ) and JPMorgan (NYSE: JPM  ) down more than 1% so far in trading. Though the losses may not be tied directly to this morning's sales report, housing data has been extremely important for bank investors lately. JPMorgan is the second-largest mortgage originator in the country, and B of A has been fervently trying to gain more ground in the market, so a decline in potential sales (read: loans) is a problem for the banks, which rely on interest revenue heavily.

Reason 2: More from Bernanke
Tomorrow, the Federal Open Market Committee will begin its two-day meeting to discuss the current monetary policy and any changes that they will make. Since the markets pay very close attention to these meetings and Ben Bernanke's announcement on Wednesday afternoon, there's sure to be a lot of movement in the coming days. The current speculation features a cutback in the Fed's bond purchasing by $20 billion starting in September -- though investors will have to wait till Wednesday to see if there's any merit to that plan.

As the Fed's stimulus policy changes, there will be an impact on firms with large investments, particularly in bonds. For insurers, this could pose a problem going forward since investment income is an essential part of their business operations. During its first-quarter earnings call, Allstate (NYSE: ALL  ) disclosed that it had altered its investing plan in order to acclimate to the current low-interest-rate environment, though it would be a sacrifice of higher returns later on. This type of change was not widely used, as insurers would have to make a series of adjustments should interest rates rise at a later time. Either way, investors should be aware of such adjustments as the environment transitions.

Reason 3: Employment data
Friday is the big day for labor market data, with the release of the Labor Department's Employment Situation report. Since labor market conditions are a huge part of the Fed's calculations for when to pull back on stimulus policies, Mr. Market has been keen to move dramatically when such reports are released. 

Companies that are dependent on consumer spending also pay close attention to labor statistics, since more employed people could result in higher spending. Dow component American Express (NYSE: AXP  ) has been highly successful in large part because it caters to spenders in the high-income demographics. But as people within all segments of the population begin spending at higher rates, the credit card company and its peers will benefit from a broader revenue stream.

Today's not the day
If there was ever a day to take a break from watching the Dow, it's today. With so much information to come later in the week, any big decisions today may be wasted once investors start reacting to the news items listed above. And as a long-term investor, you know that any single day isn't worth sweating over, so you might want to consider taking the day off!

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3 Predictions for Next Week

I went out on a limb last week, and now it's time to see how that decision played out.

I predicted that IMAX (NYSE: IMAX  ) would close higher on the week. With a strong slate of potential summer blockbusters hitting movie theaters these days, betting on the provider of super-sized multiplex experiences seemed like a good call during a week that has been historically busy at the box office. IMAX shares moved 1.2% higher on the week, pushing into positive territory with a strong Friday. I was right. I predicted that the tech-heavy Nasdaq would outperform the Dow Jones Industrial Average. (DJINDICES: ^DJI  ) . This has been a tricky call lately, so how did it play out this time? Well, the market closed nicely higher this week. The Nasdaq moved 2.2% higher, and the Dow managed to close just 1.5% higher. I was right. My final call was for Constellation Brands (NYSE: STZ  ) to beat Wall Street's income estimates in its latest quarter. The liquor leader behind Mondavi wines, Svedka vodkas, and other libations has been posting blowout quarterly results over the past year, and I was banking on seeing the trend continue. Analysts were looking for a profit of $0.40 a share during the quarter, but Constellation came through with adjusted net income of $0.38. I was wrong.

Two out of three? I can do better than that.

Let me once again whip out my trusty, dusty, and occasionally accurate crystal ball to make three calls that may play out over the next few trading days.

1. Noodles & Co. will close lower on the week
It's clear that the market is hungry for Noodles & Co. (NASDAQ: NDLS  ) , the fast-casual dining chain that has seen its shares soar 161% in its first five trading days as a public company.

Is this really a $1.3 billion company, though? Revenue growth in the teens and positive comps in 28 of the past 29 quarters is impressive, but not for a company that rang up just $300 million in sales last year. This should be a solid investment once it settles in at a much more reasonable valuation, but for now it's just not worth the hype.

My first call is for Noodles & Co. to close lower on the week.

2.The Nasdaq Composite will beat the Dow this week
Tech has been a big winner in recent years, so betting on tech over stodgy blue chips has been a good bet for me more often than not.

I'm going to stick with this pick. Most of the names in the composite are just too cheap at this point, and tech should be what carries us through the economic recovery. The market is ripe for the tech-stacked secondary stocks to continue to outpace the 30 megacaps that make up the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

3.Peregrine Pharmaceuticals will beat Wall Street's earnings estimates
Some stocks are just flat-out better than others.

Peregrine Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: PPHM  ) is an upstart biotech targeting the treatment and diagnosis of cancer through monoclonal antibodies. It has a potential winner in its lead candidate that will begin its telltale phase 3 clinical trial later this year.

Another thing it does is make analysts look like perpetual underachievers. If analysts say the company posted a loss of $0.06 a share in its latest quarter, I'll argue that it held up better than that. History's on my side!

One of my best tricks to beating the market is finding stocks that perpetually land ahead of the prognosticators. Let's go over the past year of earnings reports.

Quarter

EPS Estimate

EPS

Surprise

Q4 2012

($0.13)

($0.10)

23%

Q1 2013

($0.11)

($0.07)

36%

Q2 2013

($0.09)

($0.08)

11%

Q3 2013

($0.07)

($0.04)

43%

Source: Thomson Reuters.

Things can change, of course. Despite posting lower deficits with every passing a quarter -- a welcome trend in and of itself in eyeing the loss that analysts are forecasting -- it's certainly not cheap to ramp up pivotal late-stage clinical trials.

However, it's hard to argue against the trend. Everything seems to be falling into place for another market-thumping quarter on the bottom line.

Three for the road
Well, there are three predictions right there. Let's see how I fare this week.

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Wednesday, January 21, 2015

Here's What This 758% Gainer Has Been Buying

Every quarter, many money managers have to disclose what they've bought and sold, via "13F" filings. Their latest moves can shine a bright light on smart stock picks.

Today, let's look at investing giant Daniel Loeb, founder of the Third Point LLC hedge fund. Loeb is a well-known activist investor, famous for publicly airing his opinions about companies in which he invests and not mincing words when he's displeased. Loeb was instrumental in pointing out discrepancies in former Yahoo! CEO Scott Thompson's biography -- paving the way for Yahoo!'s new CEO, Marissa Mayer. More recently, he's looking to break up Sony.

His activity bears watching, because the guy seems to know a thing or two about investing. According to the folks at GuruFocus.com, over the 15 recent years ending in 2012, Loeb racked up a cumulative gain of 758%,  compared with just 94% for the S&P 500.

The company's reportable stock portfolio totaled $5.3 billion in value as of March 31, 2013.

Interesting developments
So what does Third Point's latest quarterly 13F filing tell us? Here are a few interesting details:

The biggest new holdings are Virgin Media and Tiffany. Other new holdings of interest include TIBCO Software (NASDAQ: TIBX  ) , a Big Data operator that posted mixed results recently as it invests in a more cloud-computing-oriented future. It's been adding recurring-revenue contracts and some speculate that it may end up acquired by another.

Third Point reduced its stake in lots of companies, including Murphy Oil and Yahoo! Among holdings in which it increased its stake were AbbVie (NYSE: ABBV  ) and ARIAD Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: ARIA  ) . AbbVie was split off from Abbott Labs (NYSE: ABT  ) and kept the pharmaceutical business. Detractors don't like its heavy debt or the impending patent expiration of its rheumatoid arthritis drug Humira, which is expected to generate more than $10 billion in annual sales. It has other drugs on the market and in its pipeline, tackling Hepatitis C, among other conditions. (A Hep C treatment just received FDA breakthrough designation.) It also sports a 3.5% dividend yield, and its chief scientific officer is retiring, which should interest investors.

ARIAD received FDA approval for its leukemia drug Iclusig, though its launch hasn't been as strong as some had hoped. The company's bone-tumor drug ridaforolimus was rejected in Europe, but it might still prove effective against other cancers. ARIAD needs some more success from its pipeline. Investors are hoping for European approval for Iclusig and eventual approvals for other treatments.

Finally, Third Point's biggest closed positions included Tesoro and Morgan Stanley. Other closed positions of interest include Herbalife (NYSE: HLF  ) and Abbott Labs. Herbalife has some high-profile critics, such as David Einhorn of Greenlight Capital and Bill Ackman of Pershing Square Capital Management, though others, such as Carl Icahn, have been buyers. The company has been reporting solid results, with its first quarter featuring revenue up 17%, net profit up 10%, and expectations for double-digit, near-term growth. Some worry about its multilevel-marketing strategy, but those who believe and are patient can collect a dividend yield near 2.5%.

Meanwhile, Abbott Labs is now focused on medical, diagnostic, and nutritional products. Its first-quarter results were solid, with the nutrition division especially strong, particularly in emerging markets. Its devices business was less strong, but it has just had a new stent approved. Wall Street analysts such as David Roman of Goldman Sachs have upped the company's rating recently.

We should never blindly copy any investor's moves, no matter how talented the investor. But it can be useful to keep an eye on what smart folks are doing. 13-F forms can be great places to find intriguing candidates for our portfolios.

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Monday, January 19, 2015

How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love My 401(k)

|VOL363|BPF025MH.JPG|Duncan  Smith, 100, 50, Banking & Personal Finance, cash, denomination, fifty dollar bill, finance, financi Getty Images Ever since I was a kid, I've been obsessed with saving money. I've also been partially obsessed with the fear that I won't have enough money in retirement to live comfortably, and will wind up eating dog food or living in a halfway house when I'm old. Maybe those ideas are extreme, but the fear that I won't have enough saved for retirement has certainly gotten me to contribute regularly to my 401(k), though that's something I wish I'd started a lot earlier and saved more robustly during my working life. Maybe it was the convalescent hospitals I visited one summer to help my mom while she worked that made me a determined saver. After setting up an activity for the residents, I could walk around the convalescent home for a bit, seeing how frail and forgotten some of them were. They had the money to stay there, but it was a place I never wanted to live. However my fear of not having enough money to live comfortably in old age came about, I only really started saving for retirement at about my third job out of college. That was when pensions were being eliminated by employers, and self-directed 401(k)s were being introduced as retirement savings vehicles. I remember the financial services company representative giving us workers -- many of whom, like me, could barely afford an apartment in the bad part of town -- a speech about how we were now responsible for our retirement, and our employer would match the contributions we made. To me, that sounded like an automatic raise -- which was rare at this company -- though it was a raise I wouldn't see until I retired. Powerful and Relatively Painless Through automatic withdrawals from my paycheck, I saw the power of saving regularly and how my money compounded over time. It was an easy and relatively painless way to save because I didn't really notice the money going to my 401(k) because the money wasn't going into my checking account. You can't spend what you don't see. It also helped reinforce an earlier lesson in how automatic withdrawals can be a painless way to save money for long-term goals. I now contribute to a SEP IRA as a self-employed freelance writer, though not through automatic withdrawals, because my monthly income fluctuates. Instead, I set aside money from one client each month to put into the individual retirement account, and I send a check to my brokerage firm. There are months when I'm not as good as I should be about sending that check -- usually ones when I don't earn much from that client -- so I try to contribute the money I earn from any extra work to my retirement savings, too. I don't know if I'll ever stop worrying completely about having enough money saved for retirement, but I'm glad that I realized early how important it is. More from Aaron Crowe
•'Netflix of Legos' Aims to Save Parents Money (and Their Feet) •Haggling Is a Lost Art in the U.S. - Or Is It Just Evolving? •The Day I Changed From a Free-Spender to a Long-Term Saver

Sunday, January 18, 2015

Alibaba Will Be the World's First $1 Trillion Company

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (NYSE: BABA) stock will be priced on Thursday (Sept. 18) evening, in what could be the largest initial public offering of all time.

NYSE: BABAThe Chinese e-commerce giant will reportedly price its shares between $66 and $68 each. If BABA shares are priced at the high end of that range, the Alibaba IPO price will reach roughly $21.8 billion on its first day.

However, that total could climb much higher - as high as $25 billion - depending on how many shares the underwriters purchase following the IPO.

The company has also been targeting a valuation of $155 billion for its IPO, and analysts surveyed by Bloomberg stated that BABA could reach $200 billion shortly after the IPO.

But Money Morning's Chief Investment Strategist Keith Fitz-Gerald has his sights set much higher for BABA's valuation. In fact, he thinks Alibaba will be the world's first $1 trillion company...

Why Alibaba (NYSE: BABA) Will Reach $1 Trillion

"Several years ago I made the comment that I thought Apple Inc. (Nasdaq: AAPL) had a shot at becoming the world's first $1 trillion company; now, I think Alibaba is the better bet," Fitz-Gerald said. "The company is moving aggressively to create strategic partnerships that are about Web dominance in its home market. It's already bigger than Amazon.com Inc. (Nasdaq: AMZN) and eBay Inc. (Nasdaq: EBAY) combined and is now launching an e-commerce platform in the United States called 11 Main that's going to have popular categories like fashion, home, and collectible items presorted for Western consumers."

You see, the Chinese e-commerce industry (Alibaba's "home" market) is growing at an alarming rate. It's an area that Fitz-Gerald has been following very closely, along with Money Morning's Executive Editor Bill Patalon.

BREAKING: Grab this stock for a fast 149% win BEFORE the Alibaba IPO. (It's NOT Yahoo.) Click here now.

Online-shopping in China was a $298 billion industry in 2013, easily surpassing the $263 billion that was spent in the United States last year. That made China the top e-commerce market in the world. According to the research firm yStats, China's consumer e-commerce market soared more than 60% in 2013.

And according to Patalon, that's just the start of China's growth...

"Beijing is doing all it can to fuel the advance of e-commerce," Patalon said. "China's leaders govern in part by crafting long-term plans that establish goals for the overall economy and for key sectors. Those plans also establish the policies, incentives, and catalysts needed to move those initiatives along."

"In China's 'E-Commerce 12th Five-Year Plan for 2011-2015' (that's what it's called), the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology focused on making China a true global powerhouse in e-commerce - and I mean a bona fide worldwide leader in this digital transactional realm," Patalon continued.

NYSE: BABA chart

If that wasn't enough, the user growth projected in China is unheard of. By 2015, the number of Chinese e-commerce users is expected to hit 520 million - that's more than double the number expected in the United States.

Couple that growth with the fact that 80% of all online transactions in China last year took place on one of Alibaba's sites, and the growth potential for the company is apparent.

The use of mobile devices in China is also growing at an incredible rate. And once again, Alibaba is positioned to capitalize...

In 2013, Alibaba reported that its mobile sales soared 100% to 351 million units. That accounted for one-third of all global sales. 

But that's just the start. According to the research firm IDC, smartphone shipments in China will top 450 million units this year.

All of those growth figures would be impressive in any market, but the fact that the growth is happening in China is notable because e-commerce in China is very different than in the United States.

"Jack Ma, Alibaba's founder and chairman, recently hinted that his company can count on an even-more-loyal audience in its home market of China than a longer established company like Amazon.com will find in its home U.S. market," Patalon said. "In an interview, Ma said that 'in other countries, e-commerce is a way to shop; in China, it is a lifestyle.'"

Editor's Note: Many investors are hoping to cash in on the Alibaba IPO by making the "obvious" move. But there's another way. I'm talking about a unique "backdoor" company that most people have never heard of before. Our research shows you can reap huge profits on this right now. Go here.

Join the conversation on Twitter @moneymorning and @KyleAndersonMM using #Alibaba.

Saturday, January 17, 2015

With Sale of Appliances Unit, GE Exits Consumer Market

Electrolux AB Buys General Electric Co.s Home Appliances Unit For $3.3 Billion Patrick T. Fallon/Bloomberg via Getty ImagesGeneral Electric appliances at a Lowe's store in Torrance, California. NEW YORK -- General Electric (GE), a household name for more than a century in part for making households easier to run, is leaving the home. The company is selling the division that invented the toaster in 1905 and now sells refrigerators, stoves and laundry machines. GE has increasingly focused on building industrial machines such as aircraft engines, locomotives, gas-fired turbines and medical imaging equipment -- much bigger and more complex than washers, and more profitable. "They are no longer going to be a consumer company," says Andrew Inkpen, a professor at the Thunderbird School of Global Management who has written extensively about GE. GE, based in Fairfield, Connecticut, announced Monday the sale of its appliance division to the Swedish appliance-maker Electrolux for $3.3 billion. Electrolux will still sell appliances under the GE brand in attempt to leverage the company's long history. GE has sold devices to people for its entire 122-year history, starting with the light bulb, which was invented by company founder Thomas Edison. The lighting division will stay, but it's just a tiny part of GE. Now GE will sell its products almost exclusively to other companies. The company is hoping to return to favor among investors with higher, more consistent and more predictable profits. GE is the only remaining member of the Dow Jones industrial average (^DJI), first calculated in 1896, and as recently as 2004 it was the biggest corporation in the world by market value. But GE has frustrated shareholders by underperforming both the Dow and broader stock indexes for much of the last decade. The company has been able to survive by shuffling its portfolio to shed unprofitable divisions or jump into a new, growing sector. And it has never shied away from abandoning historic businesses, like the plastics unit it started in 1912 and sold in 2007. The latest version of GE will make mostly big, complex equipment, some of which it has been making for more than a century, like power generators, and some that is new to GE, like oil and gas drilling equipment. In July the company spun off its consumer credit card business into a new company, Synchrony Financial. In recent years it has sold NBC Universal and its insurance operations and it is gradually shrinking its sprawling financial company, called GE Capital. In June GE agreed to buy the energy and power generation operations of the French engineering company Alstom for $17 billion. And over the last several years it has been acquiring companies to help it become a bigger player in oil and gas drilling equipment. Christopher Glynn, an analyst at Oppenheimer & Co., says the company now has the potential to show the strong results it was once famous for, though it still may take some time. "It's still GE, it's still huge," he says. "But this is a viable reset."

Thursday, January 15, 2015

Why Millennials Still Don't Save Enough

Young unemployed man dressed in blue denim jeans showing empty pockets isolated on white background with copy space. AR Images/AlamyYoung people have shown an interest in saving, but they're unable to follow through because debt is holding them back. The Great Recession handed millennials a huge lesson about money early in their careers: They saw how quickly the stock market can go south, how hard it can be to land and hold onto a job and how difficult it can be to pursue the American dream when you're drowning in debt. The results of the new 2014 Wells Fargo Millennial Study shows just how far millennials still have to go to achieve a level of financial well-being typically associated with adulthood. While eight in 10 millennials say the recession taught them the importance of saving for the future, only 55 percent of the 1,639 millennials surveyed have actually started saving for retirement. Those who aren't yet putting money away say they think they will be able to begin doing so at age 35 -- far later than the age financial advisers recommend opening up a retirement savings account. "They realize that the earlier they start, the more money they'll have," says Karen Wimbish, director of retail retirement at Wells Fargo (WFC). "They won't have pensions, they will probably live longer and Social Security might be a smaller part of their retirement income." But even though they grasp that reality, she says, their financial constrains make it difficult for them to actually get started doing what they know they should. Debt is their biggest albatross. Four in 10 named debt as their top concern, and just as many said they are overwhelmed by it, compared to just 23 percent of baby boomers. Debts eat into a significant amount of monthly income, too, with credit card debt claiming 16 percent of millennials' paychecks, followed by mortgage debt (15 percent); student loan debt (12 percent); auto debt (9 percent); and medical debt (5 percent). "For some of them, it's absolutely crushing," Wimbish says. Medical debt, in fact, stands out as a surprising problem for millennials. Despite their youth, many have faced significant amounts of health-related costs, which continue to dog them. Gary Mottola, research director of FINRA Investor Education Foundation, says one in three millennials has unpaid medical debt, compared to 22 percent of baby boomers. Indeed, half of the 6,865 millennials in the 2012 FINRA survey​ worry that they have too much debt. "This is something that's on their minds and pervades their generation," Mottola says. The Wells Fargo survey also found that it's those debts that are really holding them back. About half of millennials in the survey said more than half of their income goes directly toward paying off debt, and 56 percent said they are living paycheck to paycheck, unable to save for the future. Their top reasons for not saving for retirement include not having enough money to save (84 percent) and having more immediate priorities, like needing to pay off debt (77 percent). Another problem is that their confidence in the stock market was shaken by the recession, which could hurt them over the long run, if they keep their money in safer spots that earn lower (or no) returns. Among the 1,529 baby boomers in the Wells Fargo survey, 66 percent​ say the stock market is the best place to invest, while just 59 percent of millennials are willing to say the same. Their hesitancy to invest, though, might fade with time, as we move further away from the recession: Last year, just under half of millennials were willing to call the stock market the best place to invest. Even those who are invested in the stock marked tend to be putting their money in overly conservative spots, given their age and long time horizon. A significant number of millennials -- 30 percent -- say they have​ a quarter or less of their investments in stocks or mutual funds. Pat​ Pearsall-Ramey​, a financial planning manager at Ernst & Young, says millennials are simply too inexperienced to know what to do with their money. "They don't know how to make investment decisions. They are new to being investors, and they overreact," she says. They might watch the news and see a worrisome story and sell their stocks, for example, whereas a more experienced investor would know that it's usually best to hold shares (within a diversified portfolio) over longer periods. Still, as previous studies have found, Gen Yers' optimism remains strong, according to the Wells Fargo study. ​Seven in 10 said they are better off financially than their peers, which, statistically, cannot actually be true.​ A similar percentage said they expect their standard of living to exceed their parents by the time they reach retirement age. A whopping 78 percent said they are confident they could find a new, similar job within a year if they were to lose their current one. (Among baby boomers, only 58 percent said they same.) Gen Yers' best advice to others, according to Wells Fargo, is exactly what they should be following themselves, even if they currently find themselves unable to do so: Don't spend more than you earn, get educated about your personal finances and start saving for retirement now. As they've already discovered, it's easier said than done. Despite that reality, though, millennials are actually more satisfied with their finances than Gen Xers, a fact that Mottola attributes to ​ their financial expectations being shaped by the recession. In other words, he thinks they have lower standards. Still, those deciding whether to pull out the plastic for another purchase or ramp up their 401(k) contribution instead might want to heed the warning of Mary Beth Franklin​, a financial industry and retirement expert: "If you save 3 percent [of your income], retirement will be a lot like college. You'll eat a lot of ramen noodles, but you won't look as cute doing it." .

Wednesday, January 14, 2015

7 Reasons to Believe in JCP Stock Again

Twitter Logo RSS Logo Will Ashworth Popular Posts: The Best Ways to Buy the Alibaba IPO5 Ways Apple Is Trying to Pump Value Into AAPL Stock5 Top Fidelity Mutual Funds to Own Recent Posts: 7 Reasons to Believe in JCP Stock Again Could Yahoo Become the Next Berkshire Hathaway? 5 Ways Apple Is Trying to Pump Value Into AAPL Stock View All Posts

Yahoo Finance's Jeff Macke appeared on Breakout on Thursday afternoon before the release of JCPenney earnings to suggest that Mike Ullman has bought the company a little extra time, but that's about it.

JCPenney185 7 Reasons to Believe in JCP Stock AgainIn his words, Mike Ullman is "trying to get JCP back to being a mediocre department store that's kind of dying very slowly instead of very fast." That can't be good for JCP stock.

However, the reports of JCPenney's (JCP) death have been greatly exaggerated.

JCP stock finished Friday up roughly 13% on very heavy trading after reporting anything but mediocre Q1 earnings. In the conference call, Ullman let investors know the first two phases of its turnaround plan were complete. It's now moving into the third phase, which involves returning JCPenney to long-term profitability.

Skeptics like Macke might see the glass more than half empty, but others such as myself see a business that's come a heck of a long way in just one year. It's important to remember just how badly bruised JCPenney was when Ullman took back the reigns on April 8, 2013. In the 17 months Ron Johnson ran the company, JCP stock went from a high of $43.18 in February 2012, four months after taking the top job, to a low of $14.10 just days before his dismissal when keeping the lights on at JCPenney was very much in question.

My editor asked me today if I thought JCP was going to stick around longer.

The short answer? Well, here are my exact words from my email reply:

"I do. Sears traffic will go to JCP and Roger Farah or whomever will ensure it lasts another 100 years. It’s not out of the woods by a long shot but vendors are not going to turn away JCPenney business at this point. It’s turning whether Jeff Macke wants to believe it. Bringing back the private label is really helping along with Sephora. Little steps will turn into big steps. That’s how you turnaround a company. You get staff believing again and you’re off to the races."

But just to make sure you understand why I feel this way, let’s take a look at the major points I covered for JCP earnings previews in both the fourth quarter and this quarter, and how they’ve shaped up. There are seven points overall, and each encourages continued faith in JCPenney:

Online Sales. JCPenney's online sales in Q1 2013 were $217 million, a 19.9% decrease year-over-year. This year it increased online sales by 25.7% to $273 million, or 9.7% of overall revenue. While it didn't quite hit my target of 10%, it's close enough. I expect it do push into double digits in Q2. Private Label. As Ullman stated in its conference call, it's almost back to where it used to be at 50% of revenue. St. John's Bay is back as if it never left and Liz Claiborne is getting the attention it deserves. With private label boosting gross margins by several hundred basis points, you can expect that to help JCP stock in the future. Liquidity. This is the one that Jeff Macke and company are most concerned about and so they should be. You can't run a company if you don't have enough cash to meet your obligations. This past year, liquidity never went below $1 billion and this year CFO Ed Record believes it won't go below $1.5 billion — evidence it's making progress. More importantly, suppliers continue to be supportive of its turnaround efforts, and that's key to maintaining liquidity. Gross Margins. I specifically stated in my Q4 JCP earnings preview, "As long as they can move above 30% in the next two to three quarters, JCP's survival is less in doubt." JCP delivered gross margins of 33.1% in Q1, 230 basis points better than a year earlier, and it expects to go even higher in Q2. Sears. Both Kohl's (KSS) and Macy's (M) experienced negative same-store sales growth in the first quarter. Sears (SHLD) doesn't report until May 22, but we can assume that its earnings going to be dismal as usual. JCP is taking back some of the market share it lost during the Ron Johnson debacle. It probably won't get all of it back, but it’ll be enough to turn a profit, and that's all investors need to push JCP stock even higher. Management Enthusiasm. Mike Ullman's first sentence out of his mouth in the conference call was how enthusiastic the entire management team is about the rest of the year. The turnaround will be complete by the end of the year, when it can get down to the business of selling goods. The entire company should be excited. It's not very often you bring the dead back to life. Succession. According to Ullman, there are no "major changes" on the horizon. So, either Mike Ullman is a really good poker player or he's in this past 2014. While I'd love to see Roger Farah as CEO and Ullman as executive chairman, I can live with Ullman as the top dog. After all, he was the one performing mouth-to-mouth on the patient this past year. He's earned the right to stick around and put JCP stock on even better footing. Bottom Line

On virtually every point I've written about over the past four months, JCPenney has provided a positive response.

It’s hard for me not to be optimistic about JCP stock going forward.

As of this writing, Will Ashworth did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities.

Preventing and Fixing Broken 401(k) Plans: 12 Common Compliance Errors

ED Note: This article is an excerpt from a section in “The Advisor’s Guide to 401(k) Plans” called, “Preventing and Fixing Broken 401(k) Plans.” For the full guide on this and other topics please check out our bookstore.

Introduction 

As we have noted in prior chapters, a qualified 401(k) plan is a defined contribution retirement plan that by its nature will likely run decades. It might be expected to continue beyond current management and maybe even current ownership in the case of family-owned, closely-held companies.

And, as we have discussed, in order to obtain and maintain the desired tax and other qualified plan benefits of a 401(k) plan for the participants (primarily income tax deferral and tax-free growth of earnings) and for the sponsoring company (business expense deduction for employee and employer contributions to the 401(k)), the plan must be properly documented and then operate according to the plan-documented 401(k) design and required legal terms for the life of the plan. That compliance period extends until the plan is officially terminated under the Internal Revenue Code and ERISA requirements.

In summary, the plan must always be in both (1) form and (2) operational compliance, including demographic eligibility compliance, with the terms of the plan document for the life of the 401(k) plan in order to claim the benefits granted to a qualified plan.

Why Comply

As noted, there is the possibility of the 401(k) plan losing its qualified plan status, resulting in immediate taxation of all plan participants as well as the loss of the employer’s business expense deduction for all contributions made to the 401(k) plan. These negative tax consequences are bad enough in themselves for the employer sponsor and the plan participants. However, even worse consequences can occur. As we have already discussed, the sponsor and its designated officials in charge of the plan take on certain personal fiduciary duties and other legal responsibilities with regard to the plan and, with this duty, assume certain legal liabilities if they do not assure proper qualified 401(k) plan compliance.

For example, the DOL has instituted a special program to track down and recover from the fiduciaries on certain plans the employee salary reduction contributions that should have been made to a 401(k) by the employer and were not. The liability for these missed employee contributions (or misdirected and misused contributions due the plan) is not avoided by either corporate or personal bankruptcies. In effect they are like income tax obligations owed; they may not be avoided. Moreover, if there is evidence of intentionality in the actions, even criminal charges may be applied, and have been.

Who Is an ERISA Fiduciary?

According to ERISA, “every employee benefit plan shall be established and maintained pursuant to a written instrument (plan document). Such instrument shall provide for one or more named fiduciaries (emphasis added) who jointly or severally shall have authority to control and manage the operation and administration of the plan.”

***

[T]he IRS and the DOL have both stepped up audit programs to increase and assure compliance. The IRS is currently—as of the date of this publication—conducting audits based upon the 401(k) questionnaire it has been sending out to plan sponsors and fiduciaries. A nonresponse to the questionnaire will cause an automatic IRS audit on the nonresponder. Otherwise, the IRS is zeroing in on common problems identified by the responses as the focus of its selected compliance program audits. For instance, recently it has been targeting those companies with safe harbor plans that are failing to provide the required annual safe harbor plan notice to participants, as apparently identified from the questionnaire.

And, while many errors offer the opportunity for self-correction under the IRS and DOL correction programs, higher penalties will normally apply if the IRS identifies the problem and takes action on the violation before the plan sponsor. With the advent of the electronic filing of Form 5500, the IRS is likely to discover noncompliance and violations in a plan more quickly than in the past. In this regard, it is valuable to understand the errors and mistakes most commonly made by plan sponsors and fiduciaries with regard to 401(k) plans so that preventative process and procedure measures might be installed from the outset to avoid or reduce the incidence of errors and violations.

Finally, it is unreasonable to assume that such a complex retirement plan with substantial initial and ongoing compliance requirements will never experience an error in its documentation or violation in its operation. In fact, realistic practitioners will say that some errors in connection with qualified 401(k) plans are 100 percent certain to happen given enough time. Fortunately, even the IRS and the DOL have recognized this reality. Therefore, both agencies have adopted extensive programs for the correction of nonegregious qualified plan errors; that is, those made accidentally and without intent to avoid compliance. They have recently even updated and expanded them in Revenue Procedure 2013-12 to make it easier for plan sponsors and their designated officials on the plans to make the necessary corrections.

Common 401(k) Plan Compliance Errors

According to the IRS, the most common errors in connection with qualified plans, and specifically a 401(k) defined contribution plan, are as follows:

Conclusion

401(k) plans offer substantial tax benefits to both the plan participants and the plan sponsor that are worth protecting. Both the IRS and the DOL have provided corrective programs to cure violations in both documentation and operation of a 401(k) plan. The best approach is to establish a set of internal controls and plan documentation files that support correct documentation and operation from inception to termination of the plan in the distant future. Plan sponsors and plan fiduciaries should acquaint themselves with the most common violations that may occur with their 401(k) plan and establish internal plan controls and procedures to help prevent these violations in the first instance. They may also help surface and identify operational and fiduciary prohibited transaction violations early if they should occur despite the controls and procedures. Use of a knowledgeable and experienced qualified plan administrator can assist in this important process of compliance.

However, with the aid of its legal advisors, the plan sponsor should move quickly to ascertain the best available IRS or DOL program to cure the violation once a documentation or operational violation has been identified. It should then move forward to make the necessary correction under the selected program at the earliest date in order to protect the plan’s income tax benefits for all concerned. And, this action to correct a form or operational error may also protect the fiduciaries and plan sponsor from penalties for any fiduciary failures in connection with the 401(k) plan.

Monday, January 12, 2015

Video Bill Gross - End of QE in October, Emerging Markets Outlook

   

 

 

 


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On Second Thought, Wells Fargo Is a Buy

On Tuesday, Wells Fargo (WFC) reported fourth-quarter earnings of $1 per share. That beat Wall Street's consensus by two cents per share. Strangely, the shares initially dropped after the earnings report (yep, we know how melodramatic traders can be).

Wells FargoThen on Wednesday, it was as if rationality and math suddenly dawned on everyone, and the nervous traders got squeezed out. Before the closing bell, WFC had rallied to a new 52-week high.

Lesson: Don't trust the market's first reaction. Actually, keep a wary eye on the second and third ones as well.

Now that I've had a chance to look at the earnings from Wells, I can say that I'm impressed. Net income for Q4 rose 10% over last year's Q4. For the entire year, Wells's net income rose 16% to $21.9 billion. This was their fifth straight record year. Last year, Wells made more money than JPMorgan (JPM) (sorry, Jamie).

I was particularly impressed with the efforts of CEO John Stumpf and his team to trim overhead. (Notice how good companies don't wait to cut costs; they're always looking for excess fat they can cut.) Quarterly revenue dropped 6% to $20.7 billion. For banks, you want to see where their "efficiency ratio" is. That's a good measure of how well they're managing their operations. For Wells, their efficiency ratio actually ticked up a bit last quarter. That's not bad, coming in the wake of lower revenue.

Wells's mortgage-originations business got shellacked last quarter, but there wasn't much they could do about that. In that sector, you're at the mercy of the Mortgage Rate Gods. On the plus side, Wells's wealth and brokerage business did very well. One big benefit for Wells is that they don't have the legal bills that many of the other big banks have.

I like Wells Fargo a lot. The bank is going for less than 11 times this year's earnings estimate. I expect another dividend increase this spring.

Saturday, January 10, 2015

Don’t Claim Social Security Before 70, Alicia Munnell Says

The correct age for retirement is hotly debated in the financial services industry—a recent ThinkAdvisor report cites industry sources putting the age at 65, 70 and even 80. Viewed subjectively, or on the basis of popular opinion, many different answers are possible.

But a new analysis by Alicia Munnell, director of the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College, argues that objectively speaking, 70 is the de facto retirement age — at least as far as maximizing Social Security benefits is concerned.

Despite today’s confusing array of benefit-claiming possibilities, the benefit structure resulting from claiming Social Security at age 70 makes sense as a benchmark for income adequacy given current longevity and retirement saving trends.

In fact, Munnell argues that maintaining the current structure without the official “full retirement age” (currently 65 or 66, depending on year of birth, and scheduled to move to 67) would serve to clarify Americans’ retirement choices.

That is because, first of all, the focus on 65, the age set when Social Security benefits were first paid in 1940, does not jibe with contemporary conditions in which men and women both live on average seven years longer than they did then.

(Check out 65? 70? 80? What’s the Real Retirement Age These Days? on ThinkAdvisor.)

Were we to keep the expected number of years in retirement constant, the retirement age in 2020 would be 72; a more liberal calculation that would evenly distribute longevity gains between added time for work and leisure implies a retirement age of 70.

The calculations grow in complexity when considering socioeconomic factors — for example, the fact that the wealthiest 5% live 25% longer than the bottom 5%, a discrepancy that is actually growing wider over time.

While such factors make it difficult to design a fair benefit structure, Munnell argues the most useful metric in evaluating Social Security  is the so-called replacement rate — that is, looking at benefits as a percent of preretirement income.

The system currently offers actuarially fair benefits at whatever claiming age, meaning that the reduced income of the 62-year-old Social Security recipient and the enhanced benefits of the 70-year-old will work out to be equal on a lifetime income basis.

That said, replacement rates will range from roughly 50% of preretirement income for the 70-year-old to just under 32% for a 62-year-old claimant. But these numbers overstate the net benefit. Once we factor in Medicare premiums (which Social Security automatically deducts) and taxation of benefits up to 85%, the true net replacement income ranges (for someone retiring in 2030) from 43% of income for a 70-year-old to 24% of income for a 62-year-old.

The former provides “a solid base on which to add 401(k) savings and home equity for a secure retirement,” whereas “retiring at 62 will not be a reasonable option for those who have any ability to stay in the labor force,” Munnell argues, adding that the same is largely true for someone retiring at 65 given today’s low 401(k) balances.

While claiming benefits at age 70 makes sense, the official retirement date of 65 has become meaningless, she says. That age (or the new higher age) neither describes the first date one can claim benefits nor the age at which benefits become adequate.

While Munnell favors eliminating “full retirement age,” she is concerned, however, about raising that age and the consequent change in benefit structure. The impending change to age 67 will reduce lifetime benefits by 7%.

However, raising the official retirement age to 70 would reduce net benefits to the 30-percent range, which Munnell describes as inadequate for those claiming at age 70, and grossly inadequate for those claiming earlier.

For that reason, she suggests caution with regard to raising the retirement age. Because many Americans can’t change their retirement date, Munnell argues that changing the benefit formula is a preferable means of reducing expenditures.

Under today’s benefit structure, Munnell concludes that those in communication with pre-retirees should advise them to remain in the workforce longer and not claim Social Security benefits before age 70.

---

Check out 65? 70? 80? What’s the Real Retirement Age These Days? on ThinkAdvisor.

Friday, January 9, 2015

Baird, SIG Bench Dick’s Sporting

After a report that Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS) is considering going private sent the stock higher Thursday, the sporting goods retailer got nailed today by a pair of downgrades.

The problem? Valuation

Baird cut the stock to neutral from outperform, arguing that its move into the mid $50s “has created a more balanced risk/reward profile.” Susquehanna, meanwhile, cut the stock to neutral from positive. As analyst Christopher Svezia wrote, "We continue to see some upside given manageable near-term (4Q) expectations and potential for healthy earnings recovery in FY15, but ultimately not enough to meet our +15% threshold.”

The stock fell 1.7% to $53.75 in recent trading.

CNBC on Thursday reported unusual options trading in Dick’s stock before a Reuters report surfaced that the retailer is holding early-stage conversations with a handful of buyout firms about going private.

Baird analysts addressed the issue in today's note:

With prospects of a go-private transaction now officially part of the story, downside risk appears somewhat limited in the near term. That said, the stock's current valuation (>9x FY14 EBITDA) is already entering levels consistent with recent takeout activity, and an improvement in fundamentals across early-FY15 appears somewhat discounted. While our model can get an LBO value north of $60, it’s not certain any transaction will occur. As a result, the stock’s risk/reward profile seems more balanced versus what we envisioned last summer.

Not everyone shares those concerns. Jim Chartier, an analyst at Monness Crespi Hardt, maintained a buy rating and raised his price target to $60 from $56. As he explains: 

The stock underperformed in 2014 as weakness in the golf and hunting categories resulted in lower than anticipated sales and earnings. In addition, investors have been concerned about the company's difficult same-store sales comparison in 4QFY14. We believe the potential for a private equity sale raises the floor in the stock in the near term. And, we expect easy sales and margin comparisons in 1HFY15 will attract investors if the company reports in line or better 4QFY14 results. Accordingly, we believe a higher valuation multiple is appropriate. The stock is trading at 17.6x our ntm EPS estimate of $3.11, in line with its three year average valuation of 17.7x. We are raising our price target to $60 (from $56) based on 18.5x our FY15 EPS estimate of $3.25.

Thursday, January 8, 2015

AEP Venture Awaits PUCT Nod - Analyst Blog

Electric Transmission Texas ("ETT") – a joint venture between the subsidiaries of American Electric Power Co. Inc. (AEP) and MidAmerican Energy Holdings Company – and Sharyland Utilities L.P. have jointly requested the Public Utility Commission of Texas (PUCT) to amend their Certificates of Convenience and Necessity (CCN) to construct the Cross Valley Project.

The Cross Valley Project is a proposed 345-kilovolt transmission line. The project costs in the range of $314 million to $405 million and is expected to be completed in mid 2016. The line will extend from AEP Texas North Edinburg Substation in Hidalgo County, will move south to a location near the existing AEP Texas South McAllen Substation and then head east to the Brownsville Public Utilities Board Loma Alta Substation in Cameron County near the Brownsville Ship Channel. Therefore, this 345-kilovolt transmission line will be crossing portions of Hidalgo and Cameron counties in the Lower Rio Grande Valley of Texas.

Based on this route the length of the transmission line would range from 96 miles to 125 miles. However, the final length would depend on the route approved by PUCT. ETT is responsible for the western portion of the line while Sharyland will be constructing the eastern portion.

Besides promoting economic growth, this transmission line will allow the customers of lower Rio Grande Valley to experience continued reliable electric service.

We note that in May this year, ETT received approval for the construction of another 345-kV transmission line. The line will extend from the Laredo area into the Rio Grande Valley. The project with an estimated cost of $318 million includes construction of approximately 156 miles of 345-kV transmission lines that will connect ETT's Lobo Substation near Laredo with substations north of Edinburg.

American Electric Power is one of the largest investor-owned utility holding companies in the country, catering to over 5 million customers spread over 11 states. How! ever, tepid economies in a number of its service states restrict opportunities for growth. Also, we remain concerned about the uncertainty surrounding pending regulatory cases, its predominantly fossil fuel based generation assets and lower wholesale sales. The company presently retains a short-term Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).

Stocks that are well placed in the industry are Black Hills Corp. (BKH), Companhia Paranaense de Energia (ELP), CPFL Energia S.A. (CPL), all with a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy).

Wednesday, January 7, 2015

Dow Skyrockets on Positive Economic Data

This morning its was reported that consumer confidence rose in May to a five-year high, while home prices rose 11% year over year in March, according to the Case-Shiller index. With housing prices continuing to climb, it's no wonder consumers are more confident about the health of the economy and their livelihood, but the confidence level was much higher than most economist had expected. The index rose to 76.2 in May, leaving both April's reading of 69 and estimates for May of 71 in the dust. 

As of 12:45 a.m. EDT the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI  ) is up 159 points, or 1.04%. The S&P 500 has risen 0.91%, while the NASDAQ has gained 1.1%%. These huge gains likely indicate that investors have, at least for today, forgotten about the Federal Reserve and the possibility that it may begin slowing down its bond-buying programs in the coming months. Last week that seemed to be the only things on anyone's mind. How weak the market's short-term memory is.

Today's losers
Despite receiving an increased target share price by analysts at Credit Suisse, shares of Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG  ) are down by 1%, making P&G the only Dow component trading in the red at this time. The analysts raised the target price to $85 per share due to the return of ex-CEO A. G. Lafley. But despite the boost of confidence in P&G, traders are taking money off the table after the stock spiked 4% on Friday.

Outside the Dow, shares of Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX  ) are 4% on little news but high volume. The average daily volume for Netflix is 4.3 million shares, but today we have already seen more than 3.7 million shares trade hands. One reason for higher-than-normal volume could be that large institutional shareholders are dumping their positions. Recently, Jana Partners sold its entire position in the company, and after the stock's recent run-up, taking money off the table looks attractive.

Another big loser during this winning session is Exelon (NYSE: EXC  ) , which is down by 7.5% after analysts at Deutsche bank downgraded the stock from buy to hold this morning. The analysts also lowered their price target on the stock to $34 per share. The analysts said the company faces a number of headwinds in the long term.  

More foolish insight
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Tuesday, January 6, 2015

Are Stocks About to Get Crushed?

Earnings season is upon us, and many analysts are predicting that it won't be pretty. According to data analysis company FactSet Research Systems, earnings at S&P 500 companies are expected to contract by 0.6% (link opens PDF), marking the second year-over-year decline in three quarters.

Aluminum-maker Alcoa (NYSE: AA  ) kicks things off after the bell today. Figures available on Yahoo! Finance show that analysts expect Alcoa to report between $0.04 and $0.13 per share in earnings, with a consensus estimate of $0.08 per share.

But while the purported economic bellwether is the first company on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI  ) to report, does its performance set the tone for the rest of earnings season? FactSet's John Butters suggests that it just may be: "Recent history shows that when Alcoa has beat estimates, the price of the index has increased about 80% of the time over the next three months." Yet, as Butters goes on to explain, "When Alcoa has missed estimates, the price of the index has actually increased nearly as often as it has decreased over the next three months."

In other words, perhaps there isn't such a strong causal relationship after all.

The bigger issue is how the banks performed over the first three months of the year. "Most of the people I'm talking to have low expectations for earnings," an executive told The Wall Street Journal. "There's a lot of trepidation over what the banks will report."

The nation's first- and fourth-largest banks by assets, JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo, get the ball rolling this Friday. As I discussed, analysts will be watching three things in particular: mortgage originations, expenses, and trading profits or losses in the wake of the Cyprus bailout.

To be fair, if the performance of the market today is any indication, investors don't seem to be overly concerned, as the Dow is up a negligible four points with an hour left in trading.

Today's sluggish market could, however, have more to do with an impending speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke scheduled for later today. Bernanke is expected to reaffirm the central bank's support for its current monetary policy, under which it's buying $85 billion in Treasuries and agency mortgage-backed securities per month in order to boost housing demand and compress long-term interest rates.

So will stocks get crushed this earnings season? It remains to be seen. On the one hand, earnings could well be lackluster, led in particular by the banks. But on the other, the Fed is doing everything it can to pick up the slack.

Is now a good time to buy Alcoa stock?
Materials industries are traditionally known for their high barriers to entry, and the aluminum industry is no exception. Controlling about 15% of global production in this highly consolidated industry, Alcoa is in prime position to take advantage of growth that some expect will lead to total industry revenue approaching $160 billion by 2017. Based on this prospect and several other company-specific factors, Alcoa is certainly worth a closer look. For a Foolish investment perspective on this global giant, simply click here now to get started.

The Most Disappointing Clinical Failures in 2014

Since roughly 90% of all clinical trials end in a failure, it isn't too shocking that 2014 boasted its fair share of clinical trial disappointments. But while failure is common and expected in the industry, some defeats were more disappointing than others. Read on to learn which three clinical trial failures our Motley Fool contributors think were the biggest busts.

Source: Flickr user Aaron

Todd Campbell: In my view, the most disappointing trial failure this year has got to be Exelixis' (NASDAQ: EXEL  ) study of cabozantinib in prostate cancer patients. Investors had high hopes for cabozantinib given that competing prostate cancer treatments developed by Johnson & Johnson  (NYSE: JNJ  ) and Medivation  (NASDAQ: MDVN  ) had gone on to achieve billion dollar sales run rates following their approval.

However, Exelixis shareholders weren't so lucky. Despite performing well enough in earlier stage studies to support Exelixis launching a large (and expensive) phase 3 study involving nearly 1,000 men, cabozantinib failed to demonstrate statistical significance in both disease progression and overall survival versus the control arm. That revelation resulted in Exelixis issuing pink slips to 70% of employees and investors enduring a 77% decline in the company's share price this year.

Following its failure, hope now shifts to the potential approval of cobimetinib, a drug that the company developed with Roche and that was submitted earlier this month for FDA approval as a treatment for melanoma patients with the BRAF V600 mutation. Further out, there may still be a chance for cabozantinib. Exelixis is investigating its potential in kidney cancer and non-small cell lung cancer. Regardless, Exelixis failure is an important reminder of the risks tied to investing in biotech stocks.

Brian Orelli: Pfizer's (NYSE: PFE  ) lung cancer drug, dacomitinib, had not one but three clinical trial failures this year, all announced on the same day last January.

Dacomitinib is a pan-HER kinase inhibitor, meaning it hits HER1 -- also called EGFR -- HER2, and HER4. EGFR is a target of multiple drugs, so targeting two additional related proteins should work better?

Apparently not.

In two trials of lung patients that had already failed other therapies, dacomitinib wasn't able to increase progression-free survival -- the time it takes for the tumor to start growing again while the patient remains alive -- compared to Roche and Astellas' Tarceva, an EGFR inhibitor.

A third trial run by Canada's NCIC Clinical Trials Group also failed. In that trial, patients who had failed both chemotherapy and an EGFR tyrosine kinase inhibitor that were given dacomitinib didn't live any longer than those given placebo.

Pfizer has one more phase 3 trial, dubbed ARCHER 1050, that's testing dacomitinib as a first-line treatment compared to AstraZeneca's (NYSE: AZN  ) Iressa. That trial is scheduled to wrap up next year, so dacomitinib could be on 2015's list of clinical trial failures, although at this point, maybe it wouldn't be considered "disappointing" anymore.

The only good news from this fiasco is that Pfizer isn't funding the remaining trial. In 2012, Pfizer set up a collaboration with SFJ Pharmaceuticals in which SFJ agreed to provide funding and clinical development supervision of the ARCHER 1050 trial in exchange for milestone and earn-out payments if the first-line indication was approved.

George Budwell: One of the most disappointing clinical failures to me was GlaxoSmithKline's (NYSE: GSK  ) cancer vaccine candidate, MAGE-A3. Last March, we learned that MAGE-A3 failed to improve disease-free survival (DFS), compared to placebo, in non-small cell lung cancer patients, making it the latest in a long line of high profile clinical failures for vaccines aimed at treating cancer. In 2013, MAGE-A3 also flamed out as a potential treatment for skin cancer.

What makes this latest failure particularly noteworthy is that it added to the growing skepticism in the industry about the future of cancer vaccines in general. Despite an intensive research effort, cancer vaccines have repeatedly flopped in clinical testing, or at best, have only shown marginal benefits, when compared to other available treatments -- such as Dendreon's Provenge for prostate cancer, and Amgen's (NASDAQ: AMGN  ) T-Vec indicated for metastatic melanoma.

Going forward, I expect big pharma to continue to move away from cancer vaccines to focus on other types of immune-based therapies like checkpoint inhibitors. Unless something drastically changes, cancer vaccines no longer appear to be strong clinical candidates as monotherapies, and might only serve a minor role as "immune enhancers," when used in conjunction with other types of treatments.

1 great healthcare stock to buy for 2015 and beyond
Healthcare stocks soared in 2014, and 2015 is shaping up to be another great year for stocks. But if you want to make sure you're buying one of the best healthcare stocks, you need to know where to start. That's why The Motley Fool's chief investment officer just published a brand-new research report that reveals his top stock for the year ahead. To get the full story on this year's stock -- completely free -- simply click here.